With the Congress throwing its weight behind Nitish Kumar's JD (U) during the trust vote in the Bihar Assembly, "overlooking" lalu Prasad's RJD's stand, it may cast its shadow over the ongoing efforts at government formation by the desperate JMM.
The JMM has so far been taking the support of the five-member RJD for granted since it would have helped lalu to get closer to the Congress in Bihar and in Delhi as well. But now when the JMM-Congress combine is likely to get the cushion of two JD (U) legislators-Raja Peter and Sudha Chaudhary-the RJD chose to keep its card close to its chest.
Incidentally, the JD (U) support will also mean that the combine will not require the support of two tainted Independents-Anosh Ekka and Hari Narayan Rai. But, if both the JD (U) and RJD, the two bitter rivals in Bihar, join the government it will be scripting a new political equation in Jharkhand.
No wonder, RJD State president Girinath Singh said the party was in a wait and watch mode. "We cannot make our stand clear right now. let the Congress first declare its plan in Jharkhand. Both the Congress and the JMM seem to be in a dilemma," he told The Pioneer.
Singh said that the RJD happened to be the "permanent partner" of the Congress and still it was cold shouldered by the latter in Bihar. "It was laluji who has stuck by Soniaji through thick and thin," he maintained.
The Congress leaders also were not very enthused about the government formation. "We have no instruction from our high command over government formation," pointed out Congress State president Sukhdeo Bhagat.
Newly appointed Congress incharge B K Hariprasad, who arrived here, also said he was not aware of any move to form the government. "We will discuss the issue with our partymen," he added.
A senior Congress leader, requesting anonymity, however, said that Dilli abhi dur hai (the goal is still far away) as several issues have to be resolved before taking the plunge. First, it is a question of who blinks first on the terms for forging a coalition and leadership issue. "While the Congress wants the JMM to first finalise the deal over seat sharing for the 2014 lok Sabha elections, the JMM has told the emissaries of the grand old party of India to form the government first and then negotiate the seat sharing issue.
We want long term relations," he said. A JMM spokesman also echoed the Congress leader's assertions. Though a JMM core committee member did not rule out the possibility of government formation, but said he can say it for sure only when it happens.
The Congress wants to contest 10 out of 14 parliamentary seats. But if the JMM signs the deal, there will be sort of rebellion from senior JMM aspirants. In the 2009 parliamentary elections too, the JMM had signed a pact with the Congress but could not maintain it finally.
There is another problem for the Congress. It does not want to offer the crown to Hemant Soren. Instead it would prefer Shibu Soren. But getting an Assembly seat for the senior Soren and winning it will be a million dollar question in view of the fact that he had tasted defeat as Chief Minister from Tamar Assembly segment in the past. Soren happens to be an MP from Dumka.
"While the regional parties assess the situation from a narrow perspective, a national party will take a broader view of the scenario and take the decision accordingly," he added.
The Congress, by extending support to Nitish Kumar has ensured support of 20 MPs of the JD(U) in the lok Sabha when it tables the Food Security Bill in the monsoon session. The proposed law will be a vote catching legislation for the Congress, which is not fully relying on its present allies like Samajwadi Party (22 seats) and Mayawati's BSP with 21 seats in the lower House.
The BJP, however, said that it would not be surprised if the RJD joins hands with the JD(U) to form the government along with the Congress and JMM. "When Nitish Kumar could continue as the Chief Minister mocking the mandate of the Bihar electorate, in Jharkhand too they will be partners for the sake of power, They are simply opportunists," maintained BJP State president Ravindra Rai.
Another senior BJP leader also said that the Congress may follow the UP model where it courts the SP as well as the BSP, both bitter political rivals. "Similarly, in Bihar and Jharkhand too, it will try to strike a deal with both the JD(U) and RJD," he added.