India’s ruling Congress which is out of power in mineral-rich Chhattisgarh for a decade, has a greater possibility to produce a shocker to the overconfident ruling BJP in next month’s two-phased polls for a 90-member State legislative Assembly.
Despite being mired into factions and intra-party rivalry, the Congress has chances to belie all recent independent poll projections which indicate that BJP’s hat-trick is certain. No leader of either the ruling BJP or the main Opposition Congress can claim in Chhattisgarh that there is a wave in support or against of any political outfit. The BJP top leaders in Chhattisgarh claim that party is set to register third consecutive victory in Assembly polls on the basis of overall development of the State but the fact is somehow different.
The development in State’s sprawling violence-hit but iron ore rich Bastar as well as of coal-rich vast Surguja belt is yet to pick up and even several senior leaders including Ministers don’t enjoy ‘public respect’ because of arrogance they have displayed on a number of occasions in public. Some of the Ministers don’t believe entertaining public problems except in election year.
The only big asset for the BJP is Raman Singh who has still maintained the image of ‘Mr Clean’ despite in office of Chief Minister since December 2003. The 61-year-old Ayurvedic-doctor-turned politician has kept his image intact as “a good human being, honest man and a person who believes in development and is always available to common people”.
Experts say that Raman has a real lust for development and if he manages to get a third-term on the trot he could accelerate the pace of development and industrialisation of State’s poverty-hit areas mainly of tribal heartland Bastar and Surguja. But the worst thing for the BJP in Chhattisgarh is that its rank and file are overconfident and ‘complacency can very much spoil the game’.
In Chhattisgarh, just one or two per cent votes swing in favour or against will prove decisive and in the last Assembly polls held in 2008, the difference between the BJP and the Congress was just two per cent votes which allowed the BJP to walk away with 12 extra seats than the Congress’ total tally of 38.The Congress is still facing serious rivalry in the State with Ajit Jogi in “no mood to shake hands with Congress high command’s man Friday Charandas Mahant”.
The saga of intra-party rivalry in the Congress will get unfolded only after the party declares candidates for all the 90 segments. Majority of people believe “Jogi can renew rivalry with Mahant and can even raise a banner of revolt if his supporters were not accommodated properly in the candidates’ list”. Chhattisgarh’s first Chief Minister Jogi had in recent months dropped enough indications at several public forums that “Jogi Express” was a possibility in Chhattisgarh if he was continued to be ignored by the Gandhi family. “Jogi Express” means Jogi’s open revolt against Congress. Political pundits and experts and even senior leaders of the BJP and the Congress admit that the poll outcome in Bastar’s 12 seats will largely decide the victor and vanquished this time too.
The BJP had won 11 seats in Bastar in 2008 polls and the party needs to repeat its performance in 2013 but party’s internal recent surveys indicated defeats at 4-5 seats which keeps the Congress very much in race of power in the State which has country’s roughly 20 per cent iron ore and coal block deposits.