There is a great deal of speculation on why senior Congress leader Janardan Dwivedi has chosen this moment to reveal that Rajiv Gandhi had spoken to him in 1990 about Priyanka Gandhi's deep interest in politics.
The reason is obvious: The eventual heir to the Congress throne, Rahul Gandhi, has proven to be a failure and Congress leaders and workers believe that worse days lie ahead for the party if he continues to be at the helm of affairs. They feel (although they would rather be caught with their pants down than admit the fact in the open) that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is a better candidate to revive the fortunes of the party. They will tell you that she had always been the first choice for leadership as far as the Congress rank and file is concerned, and that Rahul Gandhi stepped in after Priyanka, for some reason, chose to take a back seat and limit her political foray to her mother Sonia Gandhi's constituency of Rae Bareli and brother Rahul's Amethi.
Dwivedi said, “As far as I know, her (Priyanka) interest in politics started at an early age. She was keen to understand political developments and the language of politics from the very start. I even have proof of this, but I don't want to discuss it now. All I'll say is that Rajiv Gandhi told me so…”
The senior leader's remark is designed to send two messages. The first is that Priyanka was Rajiv Gandhi's choice and, therefore, cannot be brushed aside. The second message is that she should at least now step in and work to contain the damage that has come to the image of the party under her brother’s leadership. It remains to be seen if she assumes a larger and formal role in the party's affairs. But what is clear is that if she does it at this critical moment, the act will be interpreted not as a helping hand to her beleaguered brother but a tacit admission of failure of Rahul Gandhi's leadership. Perhaps it is the fear of such an interpretation that is keeping Priyanka Gandhi Vadra from taking on a bigger role in the party.
For all purposes, Rahul Gandhi has been leading the Congress for a decade, earlier from behind the curtains and now formally as the party's vice president. The party has gone from bad to worse in election after election, and more so in those polls where he campaigned from the front. The examples of Assembly elections earlier in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and more recently in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are evidence of Rahul Gandhi's leadership failures. It is said that he has done a lot of work at the levels of the Youth Congress and the National Students Union of India. But none of these organisations could contribute to containing the electoral losses.
The most recent example of his failed leadership is evident from the low ratings he has been receiving from people across the country (barring very few and small pockets) in the poll surveys that various news television channels have been conducting over the past six months. One recent opinion poll actually showed him trailing behind even Arvind Kejriwal — not to mention Narendra Modi, who is far ahead — as the preferred choice of Prime Minister. Nothing can be more embarrassing that this. After all, the plan was for Kejriwal to split Bharatiya Janata Party votes and work as the Congress's B-team, and not end up exposing the vulnerable Rahul Gandhi.
The other fresh indication of Rahul Gandhi's waning leadership skills is the figures that the surveys are giving to the Congress in the coming lok Sabha election. From all accounts, the party is poised to perform at its worst level in recent years — and perhaps the worst ever since the country's independence. The Congress can lay the blame for the disaster on many doors, but its vice president cannot escape accountability. The question will be asked: Does he deserve to lead the party or should he make way for a more able leader, if not to one from outside the family, then to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
But one must remember that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is untested. let alone having led an organisation, she hasn't even contested an election. However, being untested may be a blessing in disguise for her and the party. She will start with a clean slate — like Rahul Gandhi once did — and at least invigorate the party instantly. Whether that energy will sustain in the longer run, we have no way of knowing at this stage. She could go the Rahul way by losing the plot or she could go the Indira Gandhi way by leaving her mark on the Congress.
leaders gain prestige if they can at least deliver seats from their States to their respective parties. Narendra Modi has arrived on the national stage on the strength of the BJP's sustained high performance in Gujarat under his leadership; Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav have national dreams because they have a strong base in Uttar Pradesh and a track record of governing (howsoever inefficiently) the State. Ditto for J Jayalalithaa, Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee, to name just a few of the tall leaders who nurture national ambitions. Rahul Gandhi is the only leader who has failed to win for his party even the State which he represents. Although he has comfortably won the lok Sabha polls from Amethi on two occasions and has toured large regions of the State as part of his outreach programmes, he has not been able to dent the influence of either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party. Indeed, the Congress has been consistently losing in many of the Assembly segments that comprise the parliamentary constituency of Amethi (and even Rae Bareli which party president Sonia Gandhi represents).
The only ‘victory' he can claim is the 20 odd seats that the party won from the State in the 2009 lok Sabha election. But that now appears to have been a fluke, so to say. In any case, the party is projected to slump to single digits in Uttar Pradesh in the coming lok Sabha election.
It must be kept in mind that the projected strong showing of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh comes at a time when Rahul Gandhi has invested politically and personally more than ever before in the State. If the Congress fares poorly in a State that he (and Sonia Gandhi) represent, how can his leadership be taken seriously by the rest of the countryIJ
There is also a larger message which is far graver to the Congress's first family: For various reasons the charm of the Nehru-Gandhi name appears to be wearing off. It has repeatedly failed to work in State after State, and is now expected to fall flat on the face in the lok Sabha election. The first family may be forced to make a choice soon: Allow its political hold to weaken on the party as a result of the losses or replace the leadership with a fresh face: That of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The middle way could be to let Rahul Gandhi remain the leader of the Congress and bring in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to play the de facto leadership role in the party's affairs. Between them, the siblings can then either restore or ruin the party.