The fourth phase of the countrywide lockdown ending May 31 witnessed a much bigger jump in the number of cases compared to the previous three phases.
The number of positive cases went up by 10,828 in the first lockdown, 30,407 cases in second lockdown, and 49,624 cases in third phase of the lockdown. The fourth phase saw addition of nearly 80,000 cases between May 18 and 30.
The rise in case during this period account for over 47.20 per cent of the total 1.90 lakh coronavirus infection cases. India has reported over 5,400 fatalities, doubling in the last sixteen days.
When India went into the first lockdown on March 25, it had reported 618 confirmed cases and 13 deaths.
The number of infections is now twice what it was fourteen days ago, and given the rate of growth in this period, it could hit the 2,00,000-mark by Tuesday, according to experts who said enforcing the use of masks and social distancing norms and isolating everyone with cough and fever is the only protection against infection.
Dr Randeep Guleria, professor of pulmonology, and director of the Delhi-based All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) said while the lockdown 4 was stringent, the continuation of migration of workers from the metros to their native towns led to steep rise in the cases.
He said the numbers will continue to spike. “The numbers will spike. The only way you can decrease the numbers from spiking is by aggressive isolation, community participation in terms of very strict wearing of masks, social distancing and hand-washing.
“There’s lockdown fatigue now, people have got fed up, they don’t seem to be bothered (about infection spreading), and my fear is that people don’t realise what we are headed for. There are still people who are dying, and the pandemic is yet to peak,” he said.
He said he is more worried about the deaths than the cases. “In my mind, we have reached a stage where we will not be able to sustain the lockdown in its current form for a long period of time. People will now not be able to stay cooped up indoors. We will need measures like malls and restaurants still being shut, but gradually opening up for businesses,” said Dr Guleria.
The biggest concern is what happens when things open up. “We need to aggressively work on asking people with even mild symptoms of cough and fever to quarantine and isolate themselves even if they don’t get tested. Of course, testing must be expanded because it gives you an idea of how things are and whether new clusters are emerging, but even if testing is low, the strategy must be that people self-quarantine if they have symptoms,” he said.
A group of public health experts too felt that returning migrants have served as super spreader of the disease and that the current spike in the infections could have been avoided if migrants had been allowed to go home before the imposition of the lockdown when the disease spread was very low.
“The returning migrants are now taking the infection to each and every corner of the country, mostly to rural and urban areas, in districts which had minimal cases and have relatively weak public health systems [including clinical care],” they said in a report submitted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The report has been compiled by experts from the Indian Public Health Association (IPHA), Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine (IAPSM) and the Indian Association of Epidemiologists (IAE).
India’s nationwide lockdown from March 25 till May 30 has been one of the most “stringent” and yet Covid-19 cases have increased exponentially through this phase, that is, from 606 cases on March 25 to 138,845 on May 24, they said.
“This draconian lockdown is presumably in response to a modeling exercise from an influential institution which presented a ‘worst-case simulation’. The model had come up with an estimated 2.2 million deaths globally.
“Subsequent events have proved that the predictions of this model were way off the mark. Had the Government of India consulted epidemiologists who had better grasp of disease transmission dynamics compared to modelers, it would have perhaps been better served,” the report stated.
Lockdown Duration No of days Cases
1st March 25-April 14 21 10,828
2nd Apr 15-May 3 19 30,407
3rd May 4-May 17 14 49,204
4th May 18-May 31 14 78,000