Voters in large parts of the country will have to face scorching heat as the polling season progresses. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that average maximum temperatures from April to June are likely to be warmer by half a degree Celsius in several places in central and northwest India. Temperatures are expected to be near normal in the rest of the country, the IMD added.
The US-based forecaster AccuWeather too predicted that the heatwave was expected to intensify starting first week of April.
According to private forecaster Skymet, presently most parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and NCR are observing heatwave conditions with maximum temperatures exceeding 40 degrees C. The highest (44.5 C) was recorded in Madhya Pradesh’s Khargone city on March 30.
“The April to June season average maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree Celsius over most of the meteorological subdivisions from central India and some subdivisions from northwest India. Near normal maximum temperatures are likely in the remaining subdivisions,” the IMD said.
The seasonal average minimum and mean temperatures over west Rajasthan are likely to be above normal by more than 1 degree C. Above normal heatwave conditions are likely in the core heatwave (HW) zone during the season (April to June).
In fact, for the last two to three days, heatwave has covered majority parts of the country, except eastern and northeastern States. These areas are presently under the influence of weather systems and have been observing rain and thundershower activities, keeping the temperatures under check.
According to IMD, a heatwave is declared when the temperature touches 40 degrees Celsius in the plains and continues for two to three days or is above 4.5 to 6.5 degrees Celsius above normal.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) report found that 2018 was sixth warmest year since 1901 and the average temperature over India was “significantly above normal”. The country’s average season mean temperatures were also “above the average” with the winter season (January-February, +0.59 degree Celsius) being the fifth warmest since 1901 and the pre-monsoon season (March-May) the seventh warmest, the MoES report said.
Meteorologists have pointed out global warming as behind the rise in temperatures.
According to IMD scientists, the rise in the temperature was a result of El-Niño over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño refers to large-scale ocean atmospheric climate interaction linked to warming of the sea surface temperatures in the region around the equator. During El-Niño there is below normal rainfall leading to decline in food production in the country.
“There is about 44 percent probability of maximum temperatures in the core heat wave (HW) zone during April to June2019 to be above normal. The core heat wave zone covers States of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathawada, Vidharbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests that above normal heat wave conditions are likely in the core HW zone during the season,” it said.
The forecast is in line with the IMD’s position in March when it had said that the summer months from March-May would be “warmer” than normal and several parts of north India, at least a degree hotter than their average summer temperatures. It hadn’t however specified the specific temperature ranges. The ‘normal’ temperatures refer to the mean temperatures during those months between 1981 and 2010.