Unregulated lifting of Covid-19 restrictions might cause the death of nearly 1 million people in China, a recent study by a team of researchers in Hong Kong has said, adding that explosive growth of infection rates in China could also lead to mutations of the virus.
Titled ‘Modelling the adjustment of Covid-19 response and exit from dynamic zero-Covid in China,’ the study notes that a reopening that sees a high R rate — the basic reproduction number for the virus — would “result in a large number of infections that could potentially accelerate mutation, selection and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 viruses.”
SARS-CoV-2 is the Coronavirus that causes Covid.
It’s no longer possible to determine China’s R rate after the Government stopped releasing numbers of new asymptomatic cases, said the study which is co-authored by Kathy Leung, Gabriel M Leung, and Joseph Wu. Gabriel Leung is the former dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong.
The researchers warned that the surge of disease burden posed by reopening in December 2022 – January 2023 would likely overload many local health systems across the country.
However, they said that the combined effect of vaccination, antiviral treatment and PHSMs could substantially reduce Covid-19 morbidity and mortality as China transits from dynamic-zero to normality.
“Planning for such a nationwide, coordinated reopening should be an urgent priority as part of the global exit from the acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic,” said the study. As part of efforts to return to normalcy and out of concern for a potential wider outbreak once controls are loosened, China started enforcing a more lenient version of its strict “zero Covid” policy .
Just the day after restrictions were lifted, the nation reported 21,165 new coronavirus cases.
But it was not clear if the lower figure reflected fewer infections or a decrease in testing.
The National Health Commission loosened anti-pandemic regulations, including the requirement that a recent COVID-19 test result be shown in order to enter most public places and the use of lockdowns.