Call it the fructification of the mythological curse on Yadu Vansh — that they will not be able to rule for any length of time — or a modern-day Ramayana of court intrigue, the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh would appear to have pressed the self-destruct button. In this endless saga of father fighting son and brother backstabbing brother, the 24-year-old party is at the crossroads. It will either crumble to its bitter end on the banks of the tranquil Gomti or resurrect itself phoenix-like in a new avatar.
The irony is that this extended drama of political fratricide is happening just months to go before the Assembly election in the State, tentatively due in February-March 2017. Worse, the Samajwadi Party seemed to have almost everything going for it. Under the leadership of a dynamic young leader who made development his mantra and promised to turn the perennially misgoverned State into a “Growth Factory”, the Samajwadis were poised to return to power or at least give a tough fight to contenders — the BSP and the BJP.
Although its support base is caste/community dependent, Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has tried hard to break away from the shackles of primordial loyalties and carve a forward-looking constituency to infuse dynamism into the party his father painstakingly built. But the pitfalls were too many, mostly within the family.
Family-run businesses in India often unravel once the founder-patriarch is no more on the scene. But to Mulayam Singh’s anguish, the unravelling of his party is happening before his own eyes, paradoxically with not an insignificant contribution from himself.
India’s political history shows that once a parent passes on the mantle of leadership to the next generation, usually the chosen successor gets unstinted support from the ruling family. But Mulayam Singh having anointed son Akhilesh as heir and successor, seems to have come under what cousin Ram Gopal described on Sunday as “Asurik shakti” (demonic forces) to politically damage, even destroy his own son.
With the solid support of the Yadav community in the post-Mandal political evolution of Gangetic India, Mulayam Singh also crafted an unshakeable Muslim base by confronting so-called “kamandal politics” and stood firmly against the BJP-led mobilisation for a Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. The M-Y alliance forged by him has stood the test of time, punctured only occasionally by the BJP as in 2014 under Narendra Modi’s sweeping cross-caste appeal.
The M-Y combine is not only numerically strong, but having tasted power and influence, is unlikely to fritter away. But in the event of a formal split in the Samajwadi Party, its supporters may get badly divided and benefit the BSP or the BJP or both. Akhilesh Yadav has added the elixir of development to this existing vote bank. In four-and-a-half years, he has systematically campaigned to give the “Ulta Pradesh” he inherited, a facelift.
A relentless proponent of highways and road connectivity, the young Chief Minister has laid the foundations of burgeoning industry and accomplished a great deal in the sphere of education, healthcare, handicrafts, women’s upliftment, dairy development and other parameters of growth. His sincerity has won hearts and his clean personal image is at an all-time high. However, law and order remains a spectacular failure for which people appear to blame the discredited “uncles” rather than the Chief Minister.
Even if patchwork peace is cobbled up on Monday at the party’s mega meeting, the die is cast. Either Mulayam Singh scuttles Akhilesh with a firm hand, even removing him from the Chief Minister’s post, or Akhilesh stoops to conquer ridding himself of the malevolent influence of certain family members and their non-family associates.
On several occasions in contemporary history, leaders have initiated a split in their own party only to reduce their critics to cipher and emerge victorious — Indira Gandhi did this twice, so did VP Singh and Charan Singh. Even the Communist Party similarly split in 1964 at the behest of what emerged as the bigger faction, namely, the CPI(M).
There is no certainty that if he splits the Samajwadi Party, Akhilesh Yadav will return triumphant in the next election. But one thing is clear: The UP Chief Minister has emerged a leader in his own right, fearless to take on all family stalwarts, including his father, in pursuit of his goal to take U out of the BIMARU tag.
As the old adage goes — he who dares, wins!