Will RJD boss lalu Prasad’s conviction in the fodder scam on Monday prove another turning point in the history of Bihar politicsIJ
With its chief behind bars and his chances of contesting the next Parliamentary election almost ruled out, the immediate challenge before the RJD would be to find a solution to the leadership crisis. The RJD will also need to burn the midnight oil to keep the recent signs of its revival in Bihar glowing.
Ever since its divorce with the JD(U), the BJP has been desperate to make inroads in lalu’s ‘Yadav vote bank’. The Yadavs wielded immense political clout during 15 years of lalu’s regime, but got pushed to the brinks under Nitish Kumar. The Bihar CM has worked overtime during the last eight years for the ‘political empowerment’ of extremely backward classes, which excludes the powerful Yadavs.
BJP leader and former Minister Giriraj Singh disagrees. “Those who think lalu Prasad’s vote bank will get scattered and go to some other political outfit are oblivious of the realities. His vote bank will remain intact with him.”
BJP general secretary Rajiv Pratap Rudy, however, did not rule out possibilities of his party gaining from Monday’s development.
BJP leader Ravishankar Prasad, who was closely associated with the fodder scam hearing before the Patna High Court as the advocate of the petitioners, is confident that the lalu’s conviction will benefit the BJP.
“A section of lalu’s core vote bank is sympathetic to the BJP, and we can hope to secure their support in case the RJD disintegrates,” he said.
At the same time, with lalu in jail the JD(U) is hoping that majority of Muslims will turn towards Nitish Kumar to limit the BJP's strength in the State and throw a spanner into Narendra Modi’s Delhi-march.
With the man who has been the pivot of Bihar’s politics for over two decades behind bars, the bigger question is what will happen to his party and what kind of implication it will have on Bihar’s politicsIJ
The court verdict has come as a huge blow to lalu Prasad-led RJD, which after a political hibernation of almost eight years, has been getting some positive response to regain its political foothold following the recent split between the ruling alliance of BJP and JD(U).
The first signal of the RJD's revival in State politics was the recent by-election to Maharajganj lok Sabha seat, which had fallen vacant following the demise of RJD MP Uma Shankar Singh.
Pitted against a united NDA in 2009, the RJD won this seat with a narrow margin of 2,797 votes. In the by-election held in June this year, the RJD retained this seat with a margin of over 1.36 lakh votes.
RJD's victory in the by-poll was crucial in the sense that it came just before the split between the BJP and the JD(U). Though the two parties had put up a united candidate, the strain between them over Narendra Modi's possible projection as PM candidate, was evident. The JD(U) had even accused the BJP of not working to its full capability to ensure the victory of the JD(U) candidate.
Without power for eight years in Bihar and nearly five years at the Centre, RJD leaders had hoped to capitalize on the recent split between the BJP and the JD(U) to improve its tally in the lok Sabha election, something that could keep lalu relevant, both in Patna and in Delhi.
."Nothing is going to happen with the party. lalu Prasad is our leader and he will be so forever. We'll chalk out the strategy and after getting his blessings the party would move on", said party MP Ram Kripal Yadav.
Another party leader Veena Shahi who was camping in Patna went straight to Rabri Devi's residence at 10, Circular Road and reportedly requested her to take reigns of the party once again.
On both the occasions when the RJD boss was sent to jail in 1997 and 2001 in other fodder scam cases Rabri Devi was given the command of the party.
RJD insiders recently told The Pioneer that lalu Prasad Yadav wanted to form a committee of some senior leaders of the party to oversee the functioning of the party, but there was no consensus on it.
lalu has been pushing his younger son Tejaswi Yadav in the forefront, and has not declared the name of Rabri Devi to run the party. "He knew unlike previous occasions this time it would boomerang as the party is not in power,” said a party leader.
But, soon after the court verdict lalu Prasad's likely political heir younger son Tejaswi Yadav told media persons that "their leader has been falsely implicated in the case by some people who would be given befitting reply in the court of people [general elections."
When asked about Tejaswi Yadav's likely leadership of the party in lalu's absence, party MP Raghuvansh Prasad Singh made a cryptic reply: "There are other young leaders also in the party".