Bua Mayawati transfers votes, Bhatija Akhilesh wrests 2 seats from BJP; political churning begins as lalu's party trips up Nitish in Bihar
In a country which is perpetually in an election mode, the results of bypolls seldom induce more than fleeting political ripples and are forgotten no sooner than the next ones. But the outcomes of the Gorakhpur and Phulpur lok Sabha polls are like powerful twisters that are bound to create lasting political churning in the run-up to the next year’s general elections. Added to this, the RJD’s success in retaining its base in Bihar despite coming together of the BJP and the Janata Dal (U) also carries a serious message for the ruling NDA at the Centre.
In UP, BJP’s defeat on seats represented by Chief Minister Adityanath Yogi and his Deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya has come as big surprise for political experts, mediapersons, and main stakeholders. Even when the BSP and the Samajwadi Party came together a fortnight ago after 27 years of bitter rivalry, few had expected that the fledgling alliance could pose a serious challenge to the formidable BJP. After all, both Yogi and Maurya had won with massive marigins of over 3 lakh in the 2014 lok Sabha polls. Gorakhpur, especially, was seen as a no contest, since the BJP had never lost from here in the last 30 years. With Yogi in the chair of Chief Minister, it was expected that the people of Gorakhpur would rally around him. But the result showed that in the penultimate year of the Modi Government, the people are becoming restless about unfulfilled promises and unrealsitc expectations.
The BJP’s recent defeat on two lok Sabha bypolls in Rajasthan and setbacks in Madhya Pradesh Assembly bypolls could be attributed to anti-incumbency factors. For a host of reasons, Rajasthan Chief Minister Vashundhara Raje is seen on a losing wicket in the State, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan faced the burden of three-terms of anti-incumbency. But Yogi faced no such challenges. Here is a Government that swept to power less than a year ago, reducing its opponents to the status of “also-ran”. Historically, it has been rare that Governments lose in by-polls in the first year in power.
So, what was it that caused such huge loss of face for the BJP in Uttar PradeshIJ
Yogi thinks that the over-confidence of the part of the BJP and its inability to fathom the impact of the electoral understanding between the SP and the BSP led to the defeat.
But Opposition leaders — including SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, BSP supremo Mayawati and Congress president Rahul Gandhi — see the result as people’s no-confidence against the Modi Government.
The truth may lie somewhere in between. It’s clear that the BSP and the SP make for a formidable force in UP. It has often been seen that stitching together such an alliance at the eleventh hour does not ensure transfer of votes.
Mayawati astonished everyone by proving that she may have drawn a blank in the last lS polls in UP, but her hold over support base remains intact and her supporters are ready to dance to her tune.
It’s equally true that the BJP could not have lost seats which it had won with such massive margins without disenchantment of the voters.
The Modi Government will now have to do serious introspection and convince the people that it is on the right path of transforming the economy of the country and the promise of the “Achchhe din” is not a mere political slogan.
By all indication, the battle of 2019 will be won and lost in the Hindi heartland, as such the result UP and Bihar is bound to act as a catalyst to unite the Opposition.
The bonhomie between the Akhilesh and Mayawati clearly shows that the two leaders are serious about carrying the nascent political experiment in the 2019 lok Sabha s polls. The way Akhilesh visited Mayawati’s residence to thank her personally and the warmth with the BSP chief greeted the SP cadres, has ominous portent for the BJP.
Six months ago, few would have even predicted a contest in the 2019 general elections. The bypolls have suddenly changed the perception altogether. The outcomes are more than a mere wake-up call for the NDA.