A historic victory in Assam, an impressive debut in Kerala and an inspiring performance in West Bengal brought all-round cheers for the BJP as it geared up to celebrate the Modi Government’s two years in office a week from now. Also, from the BJP’s point of view, the outcome shows the party achieved its objective of “Congress-mukt Bharat.”
However, the limelight of the current round of electoral battle was undoubtedly grabbed by J Jayalalithaa, who bucked three decades of anti-incumbency wave to lead the AIADMK back to power in Tamil Nadu for the second consecutive term, proving pollsters and skeptics wrong.
While the left front victory in Kerala was a foregone conclusion, it was the stunning show of the TMC in West Bengal that left the critics of Mamata Banerjee dumbfounded. The rout of the left in its old bastion clearly showed that the people of Bengal have not yet forgotten the dubious “Communist” legacy of 34 years when the left ruled Bengal with iron fist.
The outcome will leave the Congress devastated as two more States slipped out of its hands, confining it to three small States of North-east, and the hilly States of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, besides Karnataka. The party could take solace from a consolation win in Puducherry, but it is faced with a bleak prospect across the country, and serious questions will be raised about the leadership’s ability to revive the party’s prospects in the coming days.
The results have come out on expected lines in Assam, Kerala, and West Bengal. But Jayalalithaa prevailed against the exit polls predictions, odds of history, and her health. When she was convicted in corruption cases, not many were ready to give her a second chance to grab power. But her appeal as a caring “Amma” went deeper into the psyche of the voters who stood by her in the moment of her biggest trial. Her triumph will leave the DMK in disarray as the party will now have to settle the eldership issue and family feud.
The larger picture that has emerged from the results is that BJP’s clout is growing across the country. The victory in Assam is a great deal of significance for the BJP which won just five seats in the State in 2014 Assembly elections. led by untiring Amit Shah, who stitched a winning alliance while keeping alive the illegal migration as its core plank, the BJP is now well poised to emerge as major force in the North-east. The victory in Assam will give the BJP an opportunity to address the controversial issue of illegal migrants — an issue which has serious impact on internal security.
In Kerala, the BJP has polled nearly 11 per cent votes and is set to emerge as a major force in the days to come. Similarly, while it bagged just three seats in West Bengal, yet there are telltale signs that the party could hope to spread it wings in the State.
While the State elections cannot be considered referendum on the national politics, somewhere the BJP leadership was able to convince the voters that the Modi Government was moving in the right direction to fulfill its promise to bring in “achchhe din”.
From the BJP point of view, the outcome also shows that the party had created an electoral machine that was capable of exploiting the smallest weakness of the Opposition and maximise its own strength with committed cadres and effective leadership, which worked 24x7 to achieve its objective of “Congress-mukt Bharat.”
That is where the Congress leadership will have to do serious introspection --- something it has not been to do despite a series of reversals. Both in Kerala and Assam, the Congress turned blind eye to demand for change of guards because both Oomen Chandy and Tarun Gogoi faced serious odds. While Chandy was in the centre of solar scam scandal, Gogoi could have been hardly expected to lead the party for fourth term in power. Shockingly, the Congress leadership failed to see the writing on the wall and gave Assam to the BJP and Kerala to the left on a platter.
In Assam, the Congress did not make the obvious attempt to forge an alliance to put up even a semblance of fight. The division of Muslim votes between the Congress and AIUDF created tailor-made situation for the BJP to exploit. Sarbadanand Sonowal’s projection as Chief Minister left the Congress clueless as the aging Gogoi was no match for him.
The Bengal verdict shows that “Didi’ remains the most charismatic leader in the State. She was able to take into her stride both the Narda and Saradha scams and convince and hand over the left one of its most humiliating drubbings. It was obvious that the Congress-left alliance did not work on the ground. The results show that traditional Congress voters did not shun their antipathy for the left even though the Congress got a sizeable section of the “Communist” votes.
While the outcome will strengthen Amit Shah’s position as strategist par excellence, Rahul Gandhi will face serious criticism for his inability to direct the party and take critical decisions in the hour of need.