I am just back from Kathmandu after more than a week, interacting with thinking Nepalese — and most are. It is probably too early to write off KP Oli and his well-knit United Marxist leninist party. Oli has gone down fighting democratically. He is still very popular and is seen as one who defied India and opened channels to China while trying to “remove misunderstandings” with India. The sympathy factor is on his side. He is the underdog. He presides over the most well-organised and deeply rooted political party. The recent populist Budget is a plus point. The majority of the Paharis appears to be with him and would have liked him to continue. The blockade of the border and the attempted blockade of the Constitution (notwithstanding New Delhi’s benign intentions on behalf of the Madhesis) have offended a wide section of Nepalese in and outside Kathmandu. Oli’s allegation that India was behind both attempts (May and July) to dislodge his Government by weaning away the Maoists — though, not well grounded — has found credibility.
Most Nepalese are prepared to attribute to India anything gone wrong in Nepal, such is the prevalent mood there. This is the negative fallout of proximity and the exaggerated sense of special relations. The constitutional expert and former Nepali Congress (NC) legislator, Daman Dhungana, says if India does anything in Nepal it is blamed for it. Even if it does nothing it is still blamed for something.
What has Nepali Congress (NC) leader Sher Bahadur Deupa worried is whether Prachanda will transfer leadership of Government to him, his senior partner after nine months or so after holding local and municipal elections for the remaining period of the life of the House till January 2018 to conduct provincial and parliamentary elections according to the new Constitution. For the Nepali Congress (and India) the great game will unfold shortly. The Prachanda Maoists brought down the left alliance deserting UMl over issues like accommodating political grievances of Madhesis and other marginalised groups in the new Constitution over which the Oli Government was dragging its feet. And the breach of the Gentleman’s Agreement apparently by Oli of handing over premiership to Prachanda after passage of the Budget is what triggered the political crisis. That betrayal cost Oli the hot seat.
Prachanda knows Maoists are split into several factions and still not fully democratised. They are divided and on the decline. This is his last chance to reclaim prime ministership after having been removed by New Delhi for trying to subvert the interim Constitution in August 2009 by attempting to sack Chief of Army Staff, Gen Rukmangad Katowal. He needs India’s help for recovery and consolidation of his party. The Speaker, Onsari Gharti is the wife of former Maoist Finance Minister, Barsaman Pun. The Vice-President is former Maoist military commander, Nand Kishor Pun. Both are Prachanda loyalists. Should Prachanda deviate from being a gentleman like Oli allegedly did, which at present seems remote, the Chinese will be around in droves to help him overcome the moral aberration. But Prachanda has learnt the hard way the consequences of not balancing interests and is unlikely to back-stab Deupa.
Fourth time likely Prime Minister, Deupa has been out of office for more than a decade. He will preside over an unstable but India-friendly Government contrary to the outgoing dispensation. New Delhi has to keep its fingers crossed and conceive a fresh Modi Mantra to win back hearts and minds of Nepalese. New big brother China
will be watching closely to jump in to re-create the grand left alliance.