Tactical voting has become the buzzword for minorities in this communally-sensitive part of western Uttar Pradesh with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) trying their best to edge out each other to win Muslim votes.
The BJP, which had performed ‘well’ in Western UP in the 2012 Assembly polls winning 20 seats (out of total 47 seats it collected then), hopes that consolidation of “Chhattis-Jaati-biradari” — a rainbow collection of castes — in the region with Jats backing them would see them through the electoral battle against the SP-Congress alliance and the BSP. In many Assembly segments, triangular contests may benefit the BJP if “tactical voting” of Muslims goes in favour of a “weaker candidate” of the SP and BSP.
The worrying factor for the BJP, however, is the visible tilt of Muslim voters towards the SP-Congress alliance with the BSP emerging as “the second- best fighter” against the party in the region. The BJP is trying to ensure that the Muslim-Yadav formula is outplayed by the Dalit-Muslim combine and vice-versa so that they it could emerge as the final winner.
Communal harmony, law and order, local development, availability of basic amenities, farmers’ debt and the image of the candidates are the main poll issues. Notebandi has created some ripples but not waves. While some are strongly backing it, some others are questioning the gain from it.
SP leader Akhilesh Yadav seemes to have gained estimation in the eyes of a section of Muslims but it is too early to
say that there would be a ‘one way shift’ away from the BSP which has fielded over 90 Muslim candidates for the 403 UP Assembly seats.
The Assembly segments of western UP would go to the poll on February 11 and February 15 and like in the past may set the trend for the poll outcome in the rest of the UP in seven-phase poll ending on March 11.
The Pioneer visited the Assembly segments of Muzaffarnagar and Syamli-Kairana, that witnessed bloody riots leading to Jat and Muslim polarisation in larger part of Western UP. Both Muzaffarnagar and Kairana elected BJP MPs in Sanjeev Balyan (also a Union Minster) and HukumDev Singh respectively in 2012 lok Sabha polls. Balyan and other BJP leaders Sangeet Singh Som and Suresh Rana – both BJP candidates from here – are accused in the Muzaffarnagar riots.
Driving from the Muzaffarnagar Assembly segment to Khatuli, one catches up with Balyan, who is camping at a road-side petrol pump. “We are in fight in five to six districts in western UP,” he says but refuses to guess which way the Muslim vote would go. “Jats will go with the BJP and RlD would be vote-katua,” Balyan says in a matter-of-fact manner. Jats who have been voting for Rashriya lok Dal of Ajit Singh have now veered around the BJP, he claims. Asked whether there would be a khap missive, he says “Khap does not directly interfere in politics.”
Similar are views of Hukum Dev Singh, who is on a door-to-door campaigning for her daughter Mrigyanka, contesting from Kairana seat. “Jats are with BJP,” he says adding the MP says BJP would perform as good as it did in 2012 Assembly polls and win the same number of seats from the western UP.
Jat support to the BJP is suspected to be not as strong as it was in the 2014 lok Sabha poll but it may change if there is a complete one-sided polarisation of Muslim votes in the region.”By first week of February, majority of voters be it Jats or Muslims including those ‘floating ones’ would make up their mind,” says Imtiaz Ali, a tea shop owner near Meenaxi market in Muzaffarnagar. He says for Muslims’ decision on whom to vote will be made in ‘Khalapar’, a prominent locality of minorities in the city.
“In Muzaffarnagar seat, cycle will be the first choice for us as the SP candidate Akhilesh Swaroop has worked hard in the constituency and carries a good image”, says Ali. The sitting MlA is Kapil Dev Aggarwal, who won in a by-election in 2016 by defeating the SP candidate. However, then the BSP was not in the fray.
In 2012, the SP candidate’s father Chitranjan Swaroop won it by defeating BJP candidate Ashok Kansal by 15,002 votes. In 2007, the BJP won the seat and before that in 2002 the SP and the BJP in 1996. The contest for the seat would again be between SP and the BJP. The Muslim dominated constituency has 3,01,726 voters.
About one-hour drive from Muzaffarnagar constituency is Sarghana segment from where BJP hot-head Som is locked in a triangular contest with SP’s Atul Pradhan (a Gujjar) and BSP’s Imran Qureshi. There are 3,30,000 votes in Sardhana with 75,000 to 80,000 Muslims, 30,000 Gujjars, 42,000 Dalits , 30,000 Sainis and about 30,000 Jats.
In this ‘conflict zone’, BSP’s Imran is trying to construct a Muslim-Dalit winning formula vis-à-vis Muslim-Yadav combine of the SP’s Gujjar candidate. In a busy SP office, Mohammad Irfaq says Pradhan is respected by all and undertook “Nirbhay yatra” visi-a-vis Som and carried “a flower in his hand”.
The BSP candidate is a meat exporter and seen as an outsiders by SP opponents. But in a nearby BSP office, Quereshi’s supporter Abrar Ahmaed Qasim counters saying “all are outsiders”. He claims BJP candidate Som won because of booth capturing. How is booth capturing possible in Electronic Voting MachinesIJ To this, Qasim says Som had fake votes cast in the machines last time. Another BSP supporter Abrar condemns SP-Congress alliance saying “Congress ne paanch saal ki goondagardi per mohar laga di”.
Abrar says the SP rule witnessed 4,500 riots that put 1,61,000 Muslims in jail. Why would Muslims vote for SP or Akhilesh YadavIJ he asks.
In BJP’s office in Sarghana, Rajan Tyagi claims Gujjars, Jats, Sainis and even Nahli, Keli and Madiyyi Muslims would vote for Som as “vikas is our poll plank”. He says the BJP is in direct fight with the BSP and claims that ‘Immigration of Hindus’ is one of the poll issues for the party.
“Our plus point is - we are in 36 biradari”, he says and claims wide support across castes, communities and regions would make Som winner again. In the last polls, Som had won the seat with 62,700 votes.
With RlD floating a Muslim candidate (Vakil) in the four-cornered contest in case of division of Muslim vote, Som may have the edge.
In Khatuli Vidhan Sabha segment, BJP candidate Vikramsingh Saini, allegedly involved in a riot case, is pitted against SP’s Chandan Singh Chauhan, BSP’s Shivan Saini (son of ex-State-Minister RajpalSaini) and RlD’s Shah Nawaz Rana (owner of ‘Shah Times’). This is a three-cornered fight between BJP,SP and the BSP. The constituency has 90,000 Muslim voters who are inclined to vote for the SP but a chunk of them may gyrate towards BSP. SP will also benefit by Gujjar voters as their candidate is from the community. Khatuli has a total of two lakh votes with Dalits constituting around 65,000 votes. “The BJP and SP are mainly in the contest,” says Naresh Saini, a senior journalist in Amar Ujala news paper.
In Mirapur constituency, BJP’s Avtar Singh Bhadana, formerly Congress leader from Faridabad, is facing SP’s liyaqat Qureshi (SP) , M Pal (RlD) and Nawajish Alam (BSP). The constituency has over 1,00,000 Muslims, 38,000 Jats, 18,000 Gujjars and 16,000 Sainis. BSP’s candidate is looked at as a strong candidate vis-à-vis BJP’s Bhadana.
Besides Muzaffarnagar (five Assembly seats) and Syamli districts (three Assembly seats), this part of western UP has four other districts - Saharanpur (seven seats), Meerut (seven seats), Bijnore (seven) and Baghpat (three seats) - a total of 32 seats. In all these seats, the contest results would also depend on the turnout of respective support base of communities to the polling stations.
“There is no wave for any party and in such situation last minute rumours of one-sided voting by one community could play a major role in the poll outcome”, points out N Majoor Malik, a school teacher.