NDA is expected to emerge a clear winner and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi the obvious choice for its Prime Minister, according to a survey conducted by ABP News-Nieslen.
According to the survey, if the lok Sabha elections were to be held now, 40 per cent respondents intend to vote for NDA and only 27 per cent for UPA. Majority of the respondents also felt that Narendra Modi should be BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate for the 2014 lok Sabha elections. This could be a major setback for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as his performance is rated below UPA-II Government’s performance.
BJP is expected to win (36%) support; higher in North (48%) and among youngsters (40%) and affluent (44%). Modi is leading the race (47%) for Prime Minister followed by Rahul Gandhi and then Manmohan Singh. Modi is popular among voters from the North, younger generation and affluent people. Modi has a strong support base not just in West Zone (70% rated his performance as ‘Very good’ or ‘Good’) but across other zones as well.
Significantly, 79% of respondents in Gujarat have rated Modi's performance as 'Very good' or 'Good'. Across all zones except South, Modi emerges as the clear choice of the people for the position of Prime Minister of India. In South zone, it is neck and neck between Modi and Rahul Gandhi. In a scenario where it is a competition between Priyanka Gandhi and Narendra Modi, BJP seems to be gaining more than Congress, even greater than it would have gained had it been some other candidate from Congress versus Modi.
There is a mixed response on performance of UPA-II; North zone and older generation (51+) are the unhappiest lot. While 40% respondents feel that Prime Minister is responsible for the poor economic situation of the country, in south Zone 45% feel that it is Finance Minister P Chidambaram who is responsible. Hence BJP emerges as a clear winner across all zones (more so in North and West zones) and gender. Major support is seen gained from the younger lot (18-30 years). Congress, however, is neck and neck with BJP in the Southern zone.
Major fraction (42%) of people in North zone are unhappy with the performance of UPA-II. People in age group 51+ years seem to be least happy with UPA-II, and this could be the reason for increase in margin of votes (from 3% in favour of BJP in 2009 to 8% now in favour of BJP) for BJP and INC amongst the 51+ age group.
Across zone, gender and age, people have rated Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's performance slightly below UPA-II Government's performance. At an overall level people are in support of Food Security Bill and (48%) feel that it is a step in the right direction.
More than 60% have rated Narendra Modi's performance as good or very good; much higher among the younger age group and the affluent. His performance is rated much higher among people from Gujarat. People feel that both INC and BJP are equally responsible for communalization of politics (29%).