As reported first by The Pioneer quoting other sources two days back, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday confirmed that the country is expected to witness one degree above normal temperature between April and June across half the country with heatwave like conditions over Central and northwest parts of India. North India, including the national Capital, will face the maximum heat. The temperature in Delhi has already touched 40 degrees Celsius on Sunday.
There is also a high probability of 76 per cent of maximum temperatures in the core Heatwave zone during the 2018 hot weather season to be above normal.
The Pioneer had reported on its March 31 edition that the rise in the country’s temperature by nearly 1 degree Celsius and erratic climatic patterns are set to impact the farmers hard and reduce productivity in agriculture sector.
According to IMD’s second seasonal outlook for the 2018 summer, normal to above normal temperatures will prevail over the core heat wave zones in the country. The core heat wave zones are the States of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, HCD (Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi), Himachal Pradesh, west and east Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, west and east Uttar Pradesh, west and east Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, which will be witnessed more than 1 degree Celsius than normal.
“This means heat wave conditions will prevail in these areas. However, normal to slightly below normal maximum temperatures are likely to prevail over subdivisions of eastern, east central and southern parts of the country,” said officials of IMD.
“The current sea surface temperature conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific suggest prevalence of la Niña conditions. However, the atmospheric conditions are not suggestive of la Niña conditions. The latest forecast from Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates that la Niña conditions are likely to continue at least during the forecast period. However, forecasts from some of the global climate centres indicate weakening of la Nina conditions from the spring season onwards,” the IMD said.
“It has been observed that during the hot weather seasons followed by El Nino years (for example: 1973, 1995, 1998, 2003, 2010, etc followed by the El Nino years of 1972, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009), above normal temperatures, including moderate to severe heat wave conditions were experienced in most parts of India,” the IMD said.
They have also attributed the increasing trend of greenhouse gases due to “anthropogenic activity”. According to IMD, the maximum temperatures are likely to be 0.5-1 degree Celsius above normal in many of the subdivisions of central India.
“The seasonal average minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by 1 degree Celsius in most of the subdivisions of the plains of northwest India and by 0.5-1 degree Celsius in the rest of the subdivisions of the country except Konkan and Goa, coastal Karnataka, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim where the minimum temperatures will be warmer than normal by less than 0.5 degree Celsius,” it said.
The IMD will also issue its first monsoon forecast in the mid of April and updates it in June. The monsoon is considered normal if rainfall during the June-September season is 96-104 per cent of the lPA, the average seasonal rainfall in the country in the last 50 years, estimated at 89 cm. Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent.