The monsoon season this year may end with a rain deficit of 12 per cent to 14 per cent. With this the country is headed towards the driest monsoon for the third time in three decades — the other two being in 2002 and 2009.
When rain deficit is 10 per cent or more in a monsoon season, it is considered as a meteorological drought year. However, official announcement to this effect is likely to be made after the end of the season on September 30.
To minimise the impact of drought on farmers during the Kharif season, the Union Government has asked all State Governments to implement the contingency plan sent out to them. This includes increasing the number of working days from 100 to 150 under MGNREGA, providing diesel subsidy to the farmers so that they can use diesel pump sets for irrigation and enhancing ceiling on seed subsidy by 50 per cent.
As per the data of India Meteorological Department (IMD), the overall rain deficit in the country is between 15 to 16 per cent. The country has till date received 673 mm of rain against the normal 802 mm. So far around 44 per cent of the country has received deficient rainfall. While 50 per cent has received normal rain, only 6 per cent of the area had excess rainfall.
However, the IMD has predicted better rainfall in the next 10 days as compared to the last two weeks. The five most rain-starved States — Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka Chhattisgarh and Odisha — are expected to receive heavy showers during the next few days due to developing low-pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal.
As per the IMD forecast, heavy to very heavy rainfall would particularly occur in Vidarbha, Central parts of Maharashtra, Marathwada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, north interior Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka from Tuesday-Wednesday and continue for the next few days.
Meanwhile, even as the monsoon started retreating from parts of Rajasthan last week, the withdrawal process has slowed down. As per weather scientists, there is a system of western disturbance over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir, which has stepped up moisture content in the air.
However, rain deficit has also affected the water levels in the 91 key reservoirs of the country. These reservoirs, at present, stand at 62 per cent of their total capacity of 253.388 Billion Cubic Metres (CBM).
As per the Ministry of Water Resources, water in these reservoirs is 77 per cent of the corresponding period last year and 81 per cent of the average of last 10 years.
The situation is however most grim in the South, where 31 reservoirs are at 33 per cent of their capacity, as compared to the corresponding level last year at 71 per cent.