For the next few days, there will be no respite from the deadly swine flu, which has so far claimed 965 lives and infected over 17,000 people across the country. While medical experts say the impact of the thermo-sensitive virus will begin to diminish only when the temperature crosses 32-34 degrees Celsius, the virus will not be able to infect human when the temperature reaches 35 degrees Celsius. The Met officials have predicted that the temperature is not likely to cross 30 degrees Celsius at least till March 7.
The Met officials say that the consecutive western disturbance will result in almost two week-long rainy spell across northwest and central India till March 7, giving a platform for the swine flu to sustain. Western Disturbance travels from west to east. It is associated with rainfall, snowfall and fog in northern India. Upon its arrival in Pakistan and northern India, clouds along with rain and snow also arrive.
Senior scientist BP Yadav from the Met Department told The Pioneer that movement of Western Disturbance brings rain and clouds. “As a result temperature in the day will decline, while in the night due to clouds the temperature will increase a little bit. In other words, the temperature may hover between 14 degrees Celsius and 27 degrees Celsius till first week of March,” said Yadav.
It also means that H1N1 virus is likely to stay in these regions, further gripping the worst-hit states like Rajasthan and Gujarat. Gujarat has recorded 247 deaths and 3,950 cases since January this year.
Jharkhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi and Haryana are also likely to witness rise in cases because of the cold weather conditions during days and warmer in the nights. Such weather will play a major role for survival of the virus. Doctors say that this is not good sign as the H1N1 virus surge in low temperatures and humidity.
On reasons, why the swine flu virus spurt in winters and die in warm conditions, they quoted a study, conducted by the researchers at the US-based National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. According to it, at winter temperatures, the virus’s outer covering, or envelope, hardens to a rubbery gel that could shield the virus as it passes from person to person.
At warmer temperatures, however, the protective gel melts to a liquid phase. But this liquid phase apparently isn’t tough enough to protect the virus against the elements, and so the virus loses its ability to spread from person to person, as per the study.
Dr Randeep Guleria, medicine expert from AIIMS, said that it was expected that the virus will die once the temperature rises. However, unusual weather conditions prevailing across the country may aggravate the situation and with the rain days expected ahead, there is a possibility of rise in the numbers. The current outbreak, which began in December last year, is India’s deadliest since 2010.