Monsoon has covered the entire country, two days behind the normal schedule, but the prediction of below-average rains still persist. However, the spread of monsoon has reduced the rain deficit from 43 per cent to 36 per cent. As of now, the rainfall across the country stands at about 155 mm as against the long Term Average (lPA) of 242.3 mm.
The revival of monsoon rains in the grain bowl of northwest and central regions should help speed up sowing of main summer crops such as rice, corn, soybean and cotton.Weather experts from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have predicted generous rainfall till the end of July. According to them, the rains would be more widespread during the coming weeks and there will be an increase in the frequency, distribution as well as intensity of rainfall during the period.
The steady rains for the rest of July, would particularly help the dry regions of central and northwest India, which is thus expected to further narrow down the rainfall deficit in the country.This turnaround in monsoon is being attributed to increased low-pressure activities over the Bay of Bengal. According to experts, series of low-pressure systems are likely to ensure steady rain activity over the next fortnight in east, northwest and central regions of the country.
Slowly but surely, showers of blessings cover entire nation However, even if not all parts may get good rains, there will not be a long break in rains during this period, they predicted.At present low-pressure zone has developed over north Chhattisgarh, which has caused rainfall in Central India. Similar system is expected to bring rains to parts of northwest India as well during the next few days.
There are signs of another low-pressure system forming over Bay of Bengal around July 19, predicted the sources, all of which portend well for the monsoons.However, despite the prediction of good monsoon in the coming days, the shadow of El Nino still looms large. IMD sources said that though the latest updates show a slight slowing down of El Nino, yet chances of the weather anomaly continues to remain high and uncertain.
Apart from the probable impact of El Nino, there is yet another cause for concern for the weather experts. It is the rising temperature of the water of the eastern Indian Ocean. The Met scientists explained that the temperature difference between the waters in the western and eastern, Indian Ocean is called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IoD) whose value is currently 0.4 degrees Celsius. “Negative values of IOD are known to depress the monsoon,” they said.