Monsoon cheers are set to continue with a waning El Niño paving the way for the onset of its counter phenomenon la Niña. The country’s private weather forecaster, Skymet, on Tuesday raised its monsoon forecast to 109 per cent of normal from its earlier prediction of 105 per cent and also predicted that it would be slow at first but will reach its peak in September.
However, since the El Niño conditions are still in the process of weakening, the monsoon season that starts in June, will not begin with a bang. As per the second prediction released by Skymet, the second half of the monsoon season will receive more bountiful rainfall than the first and will spill over to October. This would be the fallout of the la Niña taking over in the latter part of this year.
Accordingly, rainfall will be 13 per cent below normal in the month of June. Henceforth, it is expected to be 8 per cent above normal in July, following up the trend with 13 per cent above normal in August, and peaking with 23 per cent excess rainfall in September, said the forecast.
The private forecaster predicted that chances of normal/above normal rainfall are as high as 92 per cent. Central India and the western coast of India will get plentiful rainfall this year.
Tamil Nadu, the North-East and South interior Karnataka will be at moderate risk in terms of rainfall through June, July, August and September.
There may be excess rainfall in some pockets of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Some pockets of Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh could experience less rainfall.
The prediction further stated that there are 50 per cent chances of the country receiving normal rainfall in June, while the figure will jump to 60 per cent in July and August. In September, there are 40 per cent chances of India receiving normal rainfall and 50 per cent chances of above normal rainfall.
There are 25 per cent chances of excess rainfall, 37 per cent chances of above normal rainfall and 30 per cent chances of normal rainfall for the entire season, said the Skymet prediction.
Meanwhile, under the influence of the cyclone Roanu, monsoon arrived before time over Andaman and has also advanced further. Conditions are now favourable for its timely onset over Kerala, said Skymet.
Skymet stuck to its earlier prediction on the date of onset of monsoon. Skymet Chief Meteorologist Mahesh Palawat reiterated that rainfall will hit Kerala on May 28.
While forecasting above normal monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department had said that monsoon was expected to arrive in Kerala on June 7, six days later than normal. The normal onset date for monsoon is June 1.