Skymet has revised its monsoon forecast for 2018 to 92 per cent of the long period average from the earlier normal rainfall prediction
In a bad news for the Modi Government’s plan to boost the economy ahead of 2019 lok Sabha polls, weather forecasting agency Skymet has revised its monsoon forecast for 2018 to 92 per cent of the long period average (lPA) from the earlier normal rainfall prediction.
As per the forecast, the rain is expected to be around 88 per cent in August and 93 per cent in September. Skymet had earlier predicted rainfall of 96 per cent of the lPA for the month of August and 101 per cent for September. The updated forecast brings along waves of worries as two-thirds of India depends on farm-based income. Nearly 60 per cent of the country’s farms lack irrigation facilities, leaving millions of farmers dependent on rain.
According to IMD classification, a normal or average monsoon means rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm (35 inches) in total during the four-month monsoon season from June. Rainfall below 90 per cent is considered “deficient”; 104-110 per cent of the lPA “above normal”, and beyond 110 per cent of the lPA “excess” monsoon.
The monsoon delivers about 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and determines the yield of key crops such as rice, wheat, sugarcane and oilseeds. The agriculture sector accounts for about 15 per cent of India’s $2 trillion economy and employs more than half of the country’s 1.3 billion people. The monsoon is critical to replenish 91 reservoirs necessary for power generation, irrigation and drinking. About half of India’s farm output comes from kharif crops such as rice, pulse, sugar, cotton and coarse cereals.
“As of now, the oceanic parameters are not at all favourable for enhancing monsoon rain during the second half of the season. Both the rainiest pockets of North-East India and West Coast are likely to perform poorer than usual,” the private forecaster said.
On the other hand, figures compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for June and July recorded five and six per cent less rainfall respectively. June recorded a rainfall of 155.3 mm in comparison to the normal rainfall limit of 163.3 mm, 95 per cent of the lPA. July received 272.4 mm rainfall while the normal rainfall limit was 289.2 mm, which was 94 per cent of the lPA. On May 30, the IMD had predicted 101 per cent of the lPA for July.
As per IMD figure on southwest monsoon, eight States and UTs, including Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland and lakshadweep, are facing rain deficiency from 20 per cent to 64 per cent this year.
Of the total 681 districts in the country, 232 of are facing either deficient rainfall or large deficient showers till August 1. Of them, 25 districts are large deficient. The country has received 431.6 mm rainfall against the normal of 462.1 mm till August 1.