In 1977, lalu Prasad, as a young rabble rouser and a powerful solider of the Jai Prakash Narain movement , contested the lok Sabha election from Chapra as a candidate of the Janata Party and trounced three-time Congress MP Ramshekhar Prasad Singh by a margin of 3.5 lakh votes. Now, 36 years down the line, and after scoring back-to-back victories in 2004 and 2009 against BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy from here, lalu is fighting a do-or-die proxy war on behalf of his better half Rabri Devi against Rudy.
Much is at stake for lalu. Debarred from contesting the polls post his conviction in the fodder scam, lalu must retain the Yadav bastion to keep his clout among his caste men. With reports suggesting that lalu’s daughter Misa Bharti could come a cropper against “uncle” Ram Kripal Yadav of the BJP from Pataliputra, Saran (formerly Chapra) provides a major challenge and opportunity for lalu Prasad.
If Rabri loses from Saran and Misa from Pataliputra, lalu Prasad’s fortress would be open for invasion. In case of regional parties, voters often look up to leaders who are both decisive and invincible. The absence of lalu and family from Parliament could set the stage for emergence of a parallel leadership within the RJD, however weak it may be.
Second, the defeat of Rabri could demoralize the Yadavs, who are being aggressively wooed by the BJP by projecting Narendra Modi as an OBC leader. If the BJP were to make Ram Kripal Yadav a Union Minister, a section of the Yadavs are bound to rally around him. lalu’s unquestionable hold over his caste men could come under serious threat in such a scenario.
So, ensuring the victory of Rabri Devi against Rudy is vital for lalu, who sees the 2014 lok Sabha battle as crucial for his political resurrection. “If the RJD wins all the seats in Bihar and Rabri Devi loses from Saran, lalu will have little to cherish,” said Rakesh Yadav, a college student at Nizamchak in Sonepur.
Talking to a cross section of the Yadavs gave the distinct impression that while the older generation is committed to backing Rabri Devi for the sake of caste pride, a section of the Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp generation is thinking differently. Whether they vote for Rudy or not, will depend on a host of factors, but it is clear that they don’t see the BJP as an untouchable party like lalu Prasad does.
“We are not sheep that can be herded! We’ll see who can secure our future and our interest before we vote,” said Nagina Singh, a B.Sc student from a local college. In 2009, lalu Prasad had the advantage of contesting as the Railway Minister, who provided jobs and granted favours to thousands of people from his constituency. In addition, he set up a Railway axle plant near Saran and sold the prospect of retaining his Cabinet berth in UPA II. But this time, few voters believe that UPA can return to power. Fewer still can be convinced that the convicted lalu Prasad could ever contest elections again. Given the situation, lalu Prasad has nothing but caste and emotional appeal to mobilize his vote bank.
Few will doubt that lalu can manage to secure for Rabri a major share of the Yadav votes, but it seems impossible for him to make any decisive inroads into the pro-BJP upper caste votes and pro-Nitish EBC votes. While JD(U) candidate Salim Parvez is clearly not in the contest, but whatever Muslim votes he takes away will add to the woes of Rabri. To consolidate the Muslim votes, lalu has unleashed a bitter campaign against Modi, reminding the Muslims how he stopped lK Advani’s rath in 1990 and vowing to do the same this time in case of Modi.
Though people nurture a lot of grievances against Rudy, who is seen as an inaccessible leader, the former Civil Aviation Minister is doing everything possible to correct that image. Now, he addresses people in chaste Bhojpuri, shakes hands with them in road shows and tries to strike a bond with them. In 2009, in a low turnout contest lalu secured nearly 51 per cent of the votes while Rudy got 37 per cent only. To make up for the deficit, Rudy will have to reach out to all sections of voters. Criss-crossing through the constituency one sees the Modi wave all the way, and this alone could turn the tide against Rabri.
“This election will prove that those banking on mere caste arithmetic will end up with egg on their faces,” said Neeraj Kumar, a first-time voter and a Dalit, standing at the jaggery shop in the bustling Sonepur market as several other youths nodded in his support. Neeraj has no hesitation in declaring that he would vote for Rudy, not because he could change the face of Saran, but because the Congress has to be ousted from power at the Centre.
looking at Neeraj as a voice of the youth and first-time voters may be too simplistic and misleading, but talk to any number of young people and the refrain invariably revolves around the need to punish the UPA and bring a Modi-led Government in Delhi. Modi’s well-orchestrated strategy seems to be paying off. The real battle in Saran is not between Rudy and Rabri Devi, but between lalu Prasad and Narendra Modi. The punters would do better to place their bets on Rudy.