At a time when several parts of the country are reeling under an acute water shortage and facing a drought-like situation, there seems to be a ray of hope, with various agencies predicting a good monsoon this year.
“The El Nino phenomenon is declining. It is expected that la Nina condition will take over, and will perhaps favour a good monsoon this year,” Agriculture Secretary Shobhana K Patnaik said while speaking at the National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif Campaign 2016-17.
Though the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) predictions are yet to come out, the Government hopes a good rainfall this year will help farmers recover from losses accrued due to deficient rainfall in the last two years.
According to private weather forecast group Skymet Weather, monsoon this year is expected to be above normal during the four-month period from June to September. It predicted that there is a good chance of excess seasonal rainfall, 35 per cent chance of above normal, 30 per cent chance of normal and 10 per cent chance of below normal rainfall. It said there is only 5 per cent chance of drought.
Skymet Weather also predicted a 50 per cent chance of normal rainfall in June and September, while in August the chances are 60 per cent. Central India and West Coast are expected to receive a good amount of rainfall while Tamil Nadu, North-East India and South Interior Karnataka may witness less rainfall, it said.
Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States in its February bulletin too said that El Nino effect is getting weaker, raising hopes for a good monsoon.
The Weather Watch report of the Agriculture Ministry said, in the pre-monsoon season weekly rainfall for the country during the week from March 31 to April 6, 2016 was 11 per cent lower than long Period Average (lPA).
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the winter season - between March 1, 2016 to April 6, 2016 was 3 per cent lower than lPA.
The Government has directed States to chalk out plans to boost crop acreage and production in kharif season starting June. In this regard, Patnaik asked the State Governments to make advance preparation for sowing of kharif (summer) crops like rice and pulses by making adequate availability of seeds, fertilisers, and other agri-inputs.
India’s foodgrain production declined to 252.02 million tonnes in 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from the record 265.04 million tonnes in the previous year, due to poor monsoon. The output is estimated to rise slightly to 253.16 in the ongoing 2015-16 crop year due to 14 per cent less rains. Two consecutive bad monsoons have led to farm distress and water scarcity in the country.
Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra and Uttar Pradesh are facing acute problem due to scarce rainfall. A high-level committee headed by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh has recommended Rs.1,304 crore as drought relief to States under the National Disaster Relief Fund while Maharashtra is also planning cloud seeding.
On Monday, Cabinet Secretary along with Chief Secretaries of drought-hit States reviewed the situation arising out of rain deficiency. Providing additional employment of 50 days under MNREGA over and above 100 days, preparation of crop contingency plans for districts facing drought and allocation for drought relief were some important aspects discussed along with food grain situation, its distribution and drinking water supply. To obviate problems faced by States, Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation has been asked to release funds for rural drinking water supply and the water supply through Rail and water tankers will be maintained.