In what could be called as ‘monsoon delight’, India will receive normal rain during June to September southwest monsoon season, the Government’s weather office said on Tuesday.
Rainfall will be 96 per cent of the long-period average (lPA) and there is a 38 per cent probability that monsoon will be near normal, said KJ Ramesh, Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD). He added that the normal rain will be good for the economy and agriculture and rain will be distributed fairly across the country.
Anything between 96 and 104 per cent of the lPA is considered as “normal”. Anything under 96 per cent is considered as “below normal” and 104-110 per cent of the lPA as “above normal”.
Around 49 per cent of India’s workforce depends on agriculture for a livelihood and 68 per cent of the country’s population resides in rural areas.
The onset of monsoon kick-starts the sowing season for summer crops in the country. India receives 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during this period which irrigates over half of its rain-fed lands.
In 2016, the monsoon was normal at 97 per cent of the lPA after two straight years of deficit rains. The normal monsoon last year aided a rebound in agriculture growth to 4.2 per cent (2016-17), after a dismal 1.2 per cent increase and a 0.2 per cent contraction seen in 2015-16 and 2014-15, respectively.
IMD provides the long range forecast for the southwest monsoon rainfall in two stages. In April, seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is issued. In early June, these numbers are updated.
last year, the southern peninsula had registered deficient rainfall and several parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala reeled under drought-like situation.
Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted 95 per cent rainfall with a margin of plus or minus 5 per cent for 2017 due to fears of El Nino this year. Thus, both Skymet and IMD are on equal footing in 2017 contrary to 2016 when both were at variance.
An analysis of monsoon forecast (1st and 2nd stage) since 2008 indicates that IMD has only once increased its 2nd stage forecast (2014), else the forecast remained same or slightly less than the 1st.
“With a 38 per cent probability of rainfall in the normal category, we believe rainfall is most likely to be higher than 96 per cent of lPA. We believe that the agricultural GDP is most likely to be in range of 3-4 per cent, a tad low compared to the fiscal year 2017 expectation, if rainfall remains normal,” said a statement from the Ecoflash, a research agency of the SBI.
The current year’s forecast is majorly important for the agriculture sector with initial reports pointing fingers towards the El Nino, which may happen during the later part of the year. IMD, however, said weak El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently combining to give a positive monsoon scenario for India in 2017, explained the Ecoflash.