Due to strong existence of la Nina weather pattern, favourable monsoon pattern has emerged giving hope of normal monsoon rains in 2018 in India benefitting an estimated 263 million farmers.
The country gets about 70 per cent of annual rainfall in June-September. However, a clear picture about monsoon would emerge only in the second half of April.
“The latest weather forecast indicates that la Nina conditions are likely to be moderate till May-end and are likely to start weakening thereafter. If la Nina weakens in the next few months, then the effect on the monsoon may be neutral. This means monsoon is likely to be normal in 2018,” said officials of Ministry of Earth Sciences.
According to a March 22 report put out by Sklymet, in the past week there were only marginal changes in the indexes of Pacific Ocean.
“With this, Skymet Weather would once again reiterate that we can expect gradual return from la Niña conditions to the neutral conditions from March to May,” it said, and added, “ Most importantly, the Nino 3.4 index, which is linked with the Indian Monsoon, does not give any alarming pointers or anxious moments that could have some impact on the approaching Southwest Monsoon 2018.”
However, MeT department is not yet ready to make any comment on the strength of the monsoon and says it will take a fortnight to come to start the assessment. “It is too early to make any accurate prediction about the strength of the monsoon. The final assessment will start from April 10-11. The MeT Department would be able to predict only after assessing all details and reports by April 21”, said an official.
When asked about south west monsoon prediction, Charan Singh of MeT Department said India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season. “About 800 million people live in villages and depend on agriculture, which accounts for about 15 per cent of country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and a failed monsoon can have a rippling effect on the country’s growth and economy. On the other hand, a normal to above-normal and well-distributed monsoon boosts farm output and farmers’ income, thereby increasing the demand for consumer and automotive products in rural markets,” he said.
In 2017, the southwest monsoon was 95 per cent of the long period average, considered less than normal. The rains were fairly normal in the first two months of June and July. And, then went for an extended break in August and also early September in some parts. The MeT Department termed this the usual ‘intra-seasonal’ break, while others said was under the influence of El Nino.
Before receiving average rains in 2016, India suffered back-to-back drought years for only the fourth time in more than a century, hurting incomes and driving some farmers to suicide.
“India receives over two-thirds of the annual rains during the four months of the south-west monsoon season that begins in June. It is no surprise that the Government, fast-moving consumer goods companies, automobile makers and manufactures of goods with rural exposure look up to the rain god every year for bountiful showers. This year, the rains matter even more as other engines of growth – in the non-agricultural sector – are not still firing on all cylinders,” said a senior officer of the agriculture Ministry.RAJESH KUMAR n NEW DElHI
Due to strong existence of la Nina weather pattern, favourable monsoon pattern has emerged giving hope of normal monsoon rain in 2018 in India benefitting an estimated 263 million farmers.
The country gets about 70 per cent of annual rainfall in June-September. However, a clear picture about monsoon would emerge only in the second half of April.
“The latest weather forecast indicates that la Nina conditions are likely to be moderate till May-end and are likely to start weakening thereafter. If la Nina weakens in the next few months, then the effect on the monsoon may be neutral. This means monsoon is likely to be normal in 2018,” said officials of Ministry of Earth Sciences.
According to a March 22 report put out by Skymet, in the past week there were only marginal changes in the indexes of Pacific Ocean.
“With this, Skymet Weather would once again reiterate that we can expect gradual return from la Niña conditions to the neutral conditions from March to May,” it said, and added, “ Most importantly, the Nino 3.4 index, which is linked with the Indian Monsoon, does not give any alarming pointers or anxious moments that could have some impact on the approaching Southwest Monsoon 2018.”
However, MeT department is not yet ready to make any comment on the strength of the monsoon and says it will take a fortnight to come to start the assessment. “It is too early to make any accurate prediction about the strength of the monsoon. The final assessment will start from April 10-11. The MeT Department would be able to predict only after assessing all details and reports by April 21”, said an official.
When asked about south west monsoon prediction, Charan Singh of MeT Department said India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season. “About 800 million people live in villages and depend on agriculture, which accounts for about 15 per cent of country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and a failed monsoon can have a rippling effect on the country’s growth and economy. On the other hand, a normal to above-normal and well-distributed monsoon boosts farm output and farmers’ income, thereby increasing the demand for consumer and automotive products in rural markets,” he said.
In 2017, the southwest monsoon was 95 per cent of the long period average, considered less than normal. The rains were fairly normal in the first two months of June and July. And, then went for an extended break in August and also early September in some parts. The MeT Department termed this the usual ‘intra-seasonal’ break, while others said was under the influence of El Nino.
Before receiving average rains in 2016, India suffered back-to-back drought years for only the fourth time in more than a century, hurting incomes and driving some farmers to suicide.
“India receives over two-thirds of the annual rains during the four months of the south-west monsoon season that begins in June. It is no surprise that the Government, fast-moving consumer goods companies, automobile makers and manufactures of goods with rural exposure look up to the rain god every year for bountiful showers. This year, the rains matter even more as other engines of growth – in the non-agricultural sector – are not still firing on all cylinders,” said a senior officer of the agriculture Ministry.