The southwest monsoon, a lifeline for several million farmers of the country, made its onset over Kerala, its threshold to the subcontinent, and India’s North-East on Tuesday morning, two days ahead of the normal schedule.
The monsoon, which brought respite to Keralites from perhaps the severest summer in several decades, is expected to remain intense till Saturday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Southern, central and eastern Kerala regions received heavy showers on Tuesday morning and rain is expected to strengthen in northern Kerala late Tuesday.
Weathermen said the conditions signalled a strong monsoon onset phase backed by an enabling offshore trough running down from the Maharashtra coast to the north Kerala coast. Kerala had received heavy showers in the past two days signalling monsoon onset as predicted by weathermen. The normal onset date for the southwest monsoon over Kerala is June 1.
According to the IMD, the monsoon had advanced into more parts of south Arabian Sea, entire Maldives-Comorin, southern parts of lakshadweep, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. It had also covered more parts of Bay of Bengal and parts of the North-Eastern States of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh.
The IMD considered the conditions as favourable for the monsoon’s further advance into the remaining areas of the south Arabian Sea, lakshadweep and Kerala. Some regions of central Arabian Sea, coastal and interior Karnataka, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, Bay of Bengal and North-Eastern States also were expected to be covered in the coming four days.
Weathermen expect this year’s south-western monsoon to be generous with rainfall expectation standing at 96 per cent. Kerala had suffered a rainfall deficit of 34 per cent in the last June-September southwest monsoon and 61 per cent shortfall in the north-eastern monsoon which had pushed the State into, according to some experts, the severest drought in over a century.
“As per the prevailing conditions, monsoon may strengthen in two days and heavy showers are expected to continue for four days,” said a scientist at the Thiruvananthapuram unit of the IMD. Most parts of the State had received heavy rainfall in the past two days, confirming the forecast about the monsoon’s touchdown in Kerala, he said.
At least 78 per cent of monitoring stations had recorded during the past two days rainfall required for the confirmation of onset of monsoon. The IMD declares monsoon onset if 60 per cent of the 14 weather stations in Kerala, lakshadweep and Mangalore reports 2.5MM rainfall for two consecutive days.
Weathermen said all the major criteria for the arrival of monsoon, including rainfall, speed and direction of wind and depth of westerlies had been met. “All weather models are indicating that the progress of monsoon will be satisfactory in the coming days and it will move ahead as per schedule,” the scientist said.
“That the monsoon might arrive in Kerala ahead of the normal schedule this time was obvious as back as on May 15 when it hit the Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands two days ahead of the normal date. Also, Cyclone Mora literally carried the monsoon on its shoulders,” he pointed out. last year, the southwestern monsoon had hit Kerala six days behind the schedule.
Kerala’s commercial capital, Kochi, received heavy showers on Monday and Tuesday leading to water-logging and tree uprooting at several places which caused traffic jams. The places where the highest rainfall - 6 CMs - recorded in Kerala in the 24 hours till Tuesday evening were Vaikom in Kottayam district and Mavelikkara in Alappuzha.
Thiruvananthapuram district, which was badly hit by drought this year, Kollam, Kottayam and Ernakulam received heavy showers that heralded the arrival of monsoon. As per reports, the eastern high ranges of Kerala also had received heavy showers which led to an increase in the inflow of water to reservoirs.