To fall back on a cliche, the just-concluded Assembly polls could have been safely termed as the semi-final of the 2019 General elections. After all, its wide sweep extended to around 100 lok Sabha seats and nearly 17 crore people, whose verdict could decisively impact the political future of parties and leaders as well as the economy.
Yet, politicians who are so uniformly fond of clichés were careful not to bring up this familiar analogy during the fierce electioneering. It was largely because the scenario is so confusing that even a diehard punter will think twice before betting even his spare penny on the verdict.
Except for Punjab, where the Badals are bound to be swept out of power in the hailstorm of anti-incumbency, the picture is largely opaque or hazy, as the case may be, in other States. Even Manipur, forgotten by the mainstream media and shunned by political stalwarts, is no more a predictable safe bet for the Congress and Ibobi Singh.
If there is a tough contest in Manipur, then it shows how bitterly the polls have been fought in all the five States and how seriously the stakeholders, have taken it.
And why notIJ At a time when even the civic polls are used for crystal-gazing the political mood of the nation, the verdict coming from such a vast swathe of populace and demography is bound to be seen as a forerunner of things to come.
Apart from sparring between the old rivals like the BJP and the Congress, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, the presence of Aam Aadmi Party in the ring has added a new flavour to the contest. If the AAP manages to win Punjab, it will pose a serious challenge to the Congress in bipolar States, while Arvind Kejriwal might temporarily “migrate” to Gujarat to take on the BJP in next year’s Assembly poll.
The loss of Punjab could be a nightmarish scenario for Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi if the party also loses the battle of Uttarakhand and does not redeem itself in Goa or Uttar Pradesh. Already, Rahul’s ability to lead the Congress on the path to revival has been the subject of intense debate within and outside the Congress. A further erosion of its political base could give voice to the naysayers and might inflict Rahul with such self-doubts that no amount of “vipassana” in secret locations could taper its effects.
In that sense, the results of these elections could be crucial for settling the leadership issue in the Congress. Imposing a “failed” Rahul on a defeated Congress could pave the way for making the BJP’s dream of a “Congress-mukt Bharat” a reality.
On the other hand, if the BJP fails to capture power in UP after its stupendous 2014 performance and does not settle the score with Harish Rawat in Uttarakhand, then Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have to take a major share of the responsibility for the debacle. BJP chief Amit Shah has already declared that the result of the polls will be a veritable referendum on demonetisation. And the note bandi was undoubtedly conceived and executed by the Prime Minister.
As the NDA Government approaches completion of three years in office, an adverse outcome will also bring under the scanner the economic policies pursued by the regime, and the long-time “viral” image of a dog astride a donkey scouting for the proverbial “achchhe din” might become the popular reflection of the sentiment of the people.
The stock market is close to reaching an all-time high, but a setback for the BJP may lead to a huge correction.
If the BJP loses the battle of UP, then the Opposition will sniff a chance to pack off the NDA in 2019. That could inevitably lead to the formation of anti-BJP regional coalitions like that in Bihar and UP. Overnight, the political scene would start looking different.
In the case of a setback for the BJP, party chief Amit Shah could also face a repeat of the music he faced after the Bihar debacle. His critics claim that in Shah’s style of functioning there is no scope for dissent and discussion - and hence many within the party could question his leadership in case the voters let down the Saffron outfit.
Conversely, a BJP win in UP - even if the party does not do so well in Uttarakhand or Goa- will make the Modi and Shah duo nearly invincible. In the near term Modi will silence the critics of demonetisation, and Shah will prove that there are no better poll managers within the BJP. A BJP victory in UP will also come as a major blow to the Opposition and its claim to defeat the NDA in 2019 will sound like nothing more than empty slogans of a frustrated and defeated lot.
Market watchers, investors and corporates will also take a major clue from a BJP victory. There is every indication that the Sensex will climb to an all-time high if UP goes the BJP way.
A BJP win in UP or even its emergence as the largest single party (that could leave open the possibility of wooing MlAs from different parties for Government formation) would also have far-reaching implications for UP politics. Veteran Mulayam Singh Yadav is unlikely to rise from the mauling he received at the hands of son Akhilesh Yadav. Uncle Shivpal may try to fight the last battle, but its outcome could be easily predicted. In both victory and defeat in the UP polls, Akhilesh will remain the torchbearer of the SP.
On the other hand, in defeat, BSP chief Mayawati may have to face a bleak scenario. With age catching up and the second line of command missing, Mayawati will have to do a lot of soul-searching to keep the BSP afloat as a powerful force of the future.
In two days from now, the nation will know who will celebrate Holi with the colour of hope and joy and who will shut himself indoor and mull over the consequences of the people’s verdict.