The BJP is all set to form a government in Delhi after a long gap of 27 years, most pollsters have predicted as the Exit Polls came in after voting ended on Wednesday while the Congress was projected to make no significant gains. Two exit polls, however, predicted a victory for the Aam Admi Party (AAP), and as many showed a close contest between them, with an edge for the BJP. The predictions spell a big setback for Arvind Kejriwal, who stepped down as the Chief Minister last year amid corruption charges, and the AAP, which was eyeing a third term on the back of consecutive near-sweeps in the 2015 and 2020 polls.
Six of eight exit polls appear to think so, with just one tentatively giving the party half a chance. According to Matrize exit poll, the BJP led NDA may get 35-40 seats, while the AAP is projected to get 32 to 37 seats. The survey gave Congress 0-1 seats. The People’s Pulse exit polls said the NDA was likely to get 51 to 60 seats, while the AAP may get just 10-19 seats. The Congress, it claimed, will not be able to open its account. There are 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly and the majority mark is set at 36.
The Election Commission will announce the official results after the counting of on February 8. Exit polls are projections made by election survey agencies based on interviews of voters as they come out after casting their votes.
Among the exit polls that predicted a BJP victory, the People’s Pulse showed the NDA was likely to get 51 to 60 seats, while the AAP may get 10-19 seats. The Congress, it claimed, will not be able to open its account.
According to People’s Insight exit poll, the NDA is likely to get 40 to 44 seats, the AAP 25 to 29 seats, and the Congress 0-1 seat.
The P-Marq exit poll predicted 39-49 seats for the BJP and its allies, 21-31 seats for AAP and 0-1 for the Congress.
The JVC exit poll said the BJP and allies would get 39-45, the AAP 22-31 seats and the Congress 0-2.
Similarly, the Poll Diary predicted 42-50 seats of the BJP and allies, while giving the AAP 18-25 seats, 0-2 for the Congress and 0-1 for others.
Chankya Strategies exit poll said the BJP and allies are likely to get 39-44 seats, the AAP is likely to get 25-28, while Congress may get 2-3.
Two surveys predicted AAP’s victory - Wee Preside, which gave 46-52 sets for AAP, 18-23 for BJP and 0-1 for Congress, and Mind Brink Media predicted 44-49 seats for AAP, 21-25 for BJP and 0-1 for the Congress. KK Surveys and Strategies also predicted 39 seats to AAP, 22 to BJP . It predicted a very close fight on nine seats
Matrize exit poll predicted a close contest, giving the BJP led NDA 35-40 seats, while the AAP was said to get 32 to 37 seats. The survey gave Congress 0-1 seats.
The DV Research exit polls predicted 26-34 seats for the AAP, and 36-44 for the BJP and allies, giving zero seats to the Congress.
While exit polls do not always get it right, in the last two elections, they had correctly predicted a victory for AAP, though falling short of the massive mandate the party had received. Exit polls have shown varying degrees of accuracy in Delhi’s elections since the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged in 2013. In 2013, while they correctly predicted a hung Assembly, they significantly underestimated AAP’s strength. In 2015 and 2020, exit polls anticipated AAP victories but failed to gauge the extent of their success, consistently underestimating their seat counts. For instance, in 2015, polls averaged 42 seats for AAP, while the actual count was 67. However, by 2020, predictions improved, with polls closely aligning with AAP’s eventual 62-seat win, indicating a gradual enhancement in polling accuracy over the years.
An analysis of the exit poll predictions shows that the Congress has likely dented the AAP’s support base among Muslims and Dalits, thereby helping the BJP. If the results hold true, it also indicates BJP’s inroads among jhuggi clusters and unauthorised colonies - the two pillars that helped AAP win in 2015 and 2020.
As the exit polls predicted a favourable outcome for the saffron party, Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva said "AAP-da (disaster) is leaving" - a term coined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to describe the AAP. However, the AAP put up a brave face, with leader Reena Gupta stressing that the party would "register a historic victory", and Arvind Kejriwal would become the Chief Minister for a fourth time.
Most pollsters have kept the Congress in the fringes -- the maximum seats predicted for the party is just three.
In the 70 member Delhi assembly, 36 is the majority mark. The AAP currently has 62 MLAs, the BJP has eight, and the Congress none.
The Delhi assembly polls were held on Wednesday, and results would be declared on February 8. There are 1.55 crore voters in Delhi, out of which nearly 58 percent exercised their franchiese till 5 pm on Wednesday.