With two phases of the Bihar Assembly polls over and a buzz about an edge to the lalu-Nitish-Congress ‘Mahagathbandhan’ gaining ground, the BJP on Saturday sought to ‘correct the perception’ claiming it was, in fact, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that was on a solid footing and winning the first two rounds hands down.
Party leaders say, as per its internal reports, the BJP will on its own win 56 of the 81 seats that went to polls in the first two phases. The leaders admit to the contest being a tough one and the unpredictability of the last phase, with 57 seats, but assert that it is the NDA that will come to power in Bihar.
They foresee BJP taking 28 to 32 seats of the 49 seats in the first phase and 24 seats of the 32 seats in the second round with two to three seats clinched by “others” also going to the NDA fold. As about the third and fourth rounds with 50 and 55 Assembly seats respectively in contest, the BJP’s assessment is that while there would be a “big good lead” in the former, the NDA would “sweep” in the latter phase.
Interestingly, the BJP feels that the fifth and the last phase, when the biggest chunk of 57 seats would be up for grabs, could be the “most unpredictable” and could “give surprising results”. The fifth phase is around Kosi and Seemanchal region of the State. Muslim-dominated Bhagalpur region, along with Kosi and Seemanchal, which resisted the Modi wave in 2014, holds the key to victory for the major parties in the highly competitive Bihar polls.
Barring BJP president Amit Shah, none of the political leaders of consequence has kickstarted campaigning in the region and therefore, it is “difficult to anticipate the voters’ mood”, they point out.
“People in Seemanchal are restless on account of the border issues, we have caste plus development working for us but our opponents have only castiest agenda with them,” they claim but hasten to add “it would be too early to say anything. The pulse of voters would be known once electioneering begins there.”
Admitting that the “poll tussle is tough,” the party suggests that they were very much “in the striking range”. In an interesting observation, the BJP is giving RJD leader lalu Prasad “double the seats of what JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar may eventually get”.
Analyzing the complex caste dynamics in the elections, the party is candid in saying that “transfer of votes to each other is happening in both the alliances” and claims that Manjhis, Kushwahas and Paswans are largely moving to their party.
The party’s think tank maintains that JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar seen in the company of “tainted” RJD leader lalu Prasad and the Congress was “less harmless” to the NDA’s poll prospects than a “lone Nitish Kumar” in the fray attacking the BJP.
In a way, sources accept that Kumar’s image was intact, mainly on account of the work the latter had done while in alliance with the BJP in the State. The BJP points out that all that Kumar has been left with now is “three per cent Kurmi votes”.
Debunking “speculations” on cancellations of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies in Bihar, sources affirm that Modi would be addressing a total of 22 election rallies in the State.
As regards women voters, the BJP asserts that women form a big percentage of voters and find Modi as the natural choice due to the latter’s agenda of development. “Their migrant spouses who are moving across the country for jobs can easily see, perceive and communicate the story of Bihar’s poverty and backwardness to their relatives in the State,” party leaders maintain.
Most of the youth who have been “flocking” to BJP’s rallies too have been readily responsive to the humour and jokes on the rival parties, they claim even while pointing that the ‘Mahagathbandan’ has virtually broken up with their biggest rebel being the “third front”.