The ruling BJP may have retained the Palghar lok Sabha seat and put up a stiff fight even while losing the Bhandara-Gondiya seat to Opposition-supported NCP, but the two lok Sabha bypoll results in Maharashtra have sent out a clear-cut message to the Amit Shah-led party that it will be an uphill task to repeat its 2014 performance in next year’s general elections. In 2014, it had together with the Shiv Sena and another ally, had won 42 out of the total 48 lS seats in the State.
More than the threat it faces from the joint Opposition comprising mainly the Congress and the NCP, the BJP’s three-decade-long ally-turned arch rival Shiv Sena is giving real headache to the BJP. The Sena once again made it clear after its defeat in the Palghar bypoll on Thursday that it would go it alone in all the future elections. If anything, the BJP’s electoral fortunes in Maharashtra will depend majorly on whether it manages to rope in “unwilling” Shiv Sena as its alliance partner in the 2019 lok Sabha polls.
While the BJP managed to win the Palghar seat by a margin of 29,572 votes mainly because of the division of votes polled by four other political parties in the fray, the fact remains that the Palghar bypoll has thrown up a potential rival to the saffron party which, if it is not reined in, threatens to erode its individual vote share in the 2019 lok Sabha polls — a thing that has clearly been established in the latest bypoll.
With hardly any foothold or organisational set up or even experience in Palghar lok Sabha constituency, the Shiv Sena put up a stupendous performance in the tribal-dominated constituency by polling 2,43,210 votes against 2,72,782 votes secured by the winner BJP and 2,22,832 votes mustered by Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) which emerged third in the bypoll. For a party which had won Palghar seat in the 2014 poll with a voting percentage of 53.72 and a winning margin of 2,39,520 votes against the BVA candidate, retaining the Palghar seat with a margin of mere 29,572 votes over the Shiv Sena is a huge comedown.
The extent of havoc that the Shiv Sena can play — if it chooses to contest the 2019 lok Sabha polls independent of the BJP -- can be gauged from a cursory study of the electoral statistics of the 2014 lok Sabha polls which saw the BJP-Shiv Sena-Swabhimani Paksha alliance - riding on the Modi wave -poll collectively 50.20 per cent of votes and win 42 seats out of total 48 seats in Maharashtra. While the BJP polled 27.30 per cent of votes and won 23 seats, the Sena secured 20.60 per cent of votes and bagged 18 seats. The Swambimani Paksha, which quit the NDA in August last year and has virtually joined the UPA, polled 2.30 per cent of votes and won one seat.
If the Shiv Sena goes alone in the 2019 lok Sabha polls, then the BJP’s poll arithmetic will change drastically - a fact that party’s national president Amit Shah and other State leaders realise very well. No wonder that in a bid to win back the Shiv Sena to its electoral fold ahead of the 2019, the senior BJP leaders have been sending overtures to Sena president Uddhav Thackeray who, however, is no mood to entertain the wishes of the senior saffron alliance partner.
Similarly, though the BJP might have put a respectable performance even in its defeat in the Bhandara-Gondiya lok Sabha bypoll, the electoral outcome in the traditional stronghold of former Union Minister and senior NCP leader Praful Patel has strengthened the Opposition NCP, which has recaptured the seat that it had lost to the BJP in the 2014 polls by a sizeable margin of 1,49,875 votes.
Interestingly enough, the then winning BJP candidate Nana Patole - who quit the Amit Shah-led party after attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December last year and joined the Congress in January this year - played a key role in the victory of NCP’s Madhukar Kukde in the bypoll. Though Patole was keen to contest the bypoll, the NCP and Congress came to a pre-poll understanding and fielded Kukde as the joint Opposition candidate. Both Patole and Patel worked hard for Kukde’s victory in the bypoll which is a clear sign of the current cosy relationship between the Congress and the NCP.
Given the renewed strength of the Congress and the NCP which have ramped up their organisational set-ups across Maharashtra, the spoilsport role to be played in all likelihood by the Shiv Sena and the imminent lack of Modi wave, the going is to be very tough for the ruling BJP in the State in the 2019 polls.
The only silver lining for the BJP in the post-2019 lok Sabha poll scenario is that the Shiv Sena may once again adopt the strategy that it had adopted before and after the October 2014 State Assembly polls which it had contested independently and entered into a post-poll power sharing arrangement with the Narendra Modi-led party.
More than being a tiger as it calls itself, the Shiv Sena has been more of a chameleon in recent years especially in matters pertaining to its relations with the BJP. This can be evidenced from the fact that even while being in the ruling alliance in the State and at the Centre, the Shiv Sena has never lost an opportunity to attack Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP on a regular basis. In the process, the Sena has tried to occupy the Opposition’s space even while being in the ruling alliance.
The Sena’s moral bankruptcy can gauged from the fact that it has steadfastly refused to walk out of the BJP-led saffron alliance Government in the State, despite its strong opposition to the policies of the Narendra Modi Government at the Centre and the Devendra Fadnavis Government in the State.
Even after his party’s defeat in the Palghar bypoll campaigning for which saw him criticise the BJP bitterly, Sena president Uddhav Thackeray refused to speak his mind on whether his party planned to walk out of the Fadnavis Government.
Available indications suggest that the Sena wants to enjoy the fruits of powers in the State and at the Centre till weeks ahead of the 2019 lok Sabha polls - a thing that the BJP should not allow. If it wants to consolidate its vote bank across the State, it should dump the Sena and function as a minority Government or go in for a mid-term Assembly polls.