As north and northwest part of the country reels under a heatwave and dry humid weather conditions due to monsoon’s delay, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said monsoon rain in July is likely to be “normal” between 94 and 106 per cent of long-period average. It added that rains in the north, northwest India will revive only during the second week.
Dry and strong westerly winds blowing from Pakistan and West Asia have brought the heatwaves and dry humid conditions across northern and central India which is likely to continue till the second week.
Temperatures in several places in central and western India crossed 45 degrees Celsius on Thursday. In normal weather conditions, this region sees heatwave conditions in late April, May or early June.
IMD director general Mrutunjay Mohapatra in its forecast for July said rainfall is not expected to be good in the first week, but it is likely to pick up in the second half of the second week of July. According to Mohapatra, the advancement of the monsoon is unlikely to happen before July 7.
Farmers are worried as the delay in the arrival of the wind system is likely to impact agricultural operations such as sowing and transplantation of crops, irrigation scheduling and power requirements in the northwest region. According to IMD data, despite 10 per cent excess rainfall in June, at least 202 districts are faced large deficient monsoon and 183 deficient rainfall so far.
On the southwest monsoon, Dr Mohapatra said “below normal” to “normal” rainfall is likely over many areas of northwest India; parts of the south peninsula, central, east and northeast India while “normal” to “above normal” rainfall is likely over parts of central India and adjacent areas of peninsular India and Gangetic plains in July.
Mohapatra said monsoon covered most parts of the country except northwest India, by June 19. He said southwest monsoon does take a break and it is normal. But it is not usual for the break to stretch so much.
“Since June 19, no progress has been observed in the advancement of the monsoon but it started weakening from June 26 onwards. June recorded 10 percent more rainfall than normal. A large part of it was received between June 3 and 19m,” he said.
Mohapatra said the latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Mohapatra said the latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is an enhanced possibility of the development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean from July to September, he pointed out.