With the terrorists facing heavy reverses in the Kashmir hinterland and the Pakistan Army increasing ceasefire violations from across the Line of Control (LoC) to aid fresh infiltrations, the security establishment is wary of the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan as it fears Islamabad may push a large number of battle-hardened ultras from the strife-torn country to J&K to fuel terrorism in the poll year.
Given the void in terrorist ranks in Kashmir due to relentless operations, Pakistan may attempt and push terrorists from Afghanistan into Kashmir Valley to launch surprise attacks on the Indian security forces and places of strategic importance to thwart holding of Lok Sabha polls likely to be held in April-May. In the past also, Pakistan had adopted a similar tactic of pushing terrorists, trained in guerrilla warfare, inside the Indian frontiers at the peak of terrorism between 1990 and 1996.
Several independent observers closely watching the prevailing security scenario in the State have started raising similar concerns warning the Indian Army and other anti-insurgency security forces to get ready to deal with the threat.
Last week, delivering a lecture in Pune, former Director General of Police, Jammu & Kashmir, K Rajendra had also raised the issue of withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and cautioned it will have implications in the Valley and terrorists may feel emboldened. “Militant outfits can feel that New Delhi can also be defeated, so there is an urgent need for India to adopt a ‘clear-cut roadmap’ to deal with militancy in Kashmir,” said Kumar.
Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh said the situation was better than what it was earlier in Kashmir as the State Police and security forces have achieved a lot of successes on operational front killing over 250 terrorists this year and destroying their support structure.
As of now, the security forces have managed to neutralise the leadership of the major terrorist ‘tanzeems (organizations)’ in Kashmir Valley thereby leaving the junior and less experienced cadre of the outfits without a clear road map to step up levels of violence.
Given this ground report, the security forces will increase the tempo of operations even during the winter months to deter terrorists from regrouping anticipating that if terrorist related violence is brought within manageable limits in the next three months it will have a major positive effect in terms of restarting political activities. Relative normalcy in the hinterland may also prove to be conducive for having parliamentary polls in April or May next year, officials in the security establishment said on Saturday.
While all markers like neutralising of highest number of terrorists killed this year and declining infiltration favour holding polls including State and Lok Sabha, officials, however, admitted the situation on the LoC is “precarious.”
Elaborating upon this factor, they said ceasefire violations by the Pakistan Army continue in an apparent effort to keep the border hot by pushing in infiltrators into Kashmir Valley in the run up to the polls.
In fact, a Pakistan High Commission official was summoned on Thursday in New Delhi and a strong protest was lodged at the incidents of cross LoC terrorist infiltration and targeting of Indian civilians and security forces on December 21 and 26 this year leading to loss of lives on the Indian side.
Pakistan forces have carried out over 1,962 incidents of unprovoked ceasefire violations in which 50 Indians have lost their lives, the External Affairs Ministry said.
Explaining the dynamics of LoC, sources said while the Pakistan Army violates ceasefire in North of Pir Panjal to give covering fire to the terrorists to sneak across into Kashmir, intense firing in South of Pir Panjal is carried out to dominate the Indian Army positions there and also push in ultras.
On ground zero, the foot soldiers of the Indian Army are alert and Anti-Infiltration Obstacle System (AIOS) has also been bolstered with sophisticated gadgets to timely detect any breach along the 740 km long LoC.