The national monsoon deficit has narrowed to 11 per cent dispelling apprehensions of drought. Rainfall was 64 per cent above average this week, recording the highest figures of the season.
According to weather experts, monsoon usually enters its retreating phase during this period of the year. The phase normally starts from early September and the monsoon withdraws completely from western Rajasthan by middle of the month. They said that withdrawal of monsoon is not likely to commence this year, during the next one week.
According to the forecast by Met scientists, monsoon activity would be above normal over central and eastern parts of the country during the next ten days and over south Peninsula and Northeastern States during the last week of September. The rains are also expected to be active in the western region next week.
Further, rain/thundershowers will occur at many places accompanied with isolated heavy rainfall over Northeastern States during certain days of the week.
According to the figures from India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country as a whole has received 699 mm rainfall as against the normal of 781.5 mm. Jammu & Kashmir has received 792% above average rains this week, the highest in the country, resulting in the worst floods in six decades. West Rajasthan and Punjab have also received 235% and 209% above average rainfall during this week.
According to the figures of IMD, central India and South Peninsula have the lowest deficit of 5 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. The deficit in north-west India has also narrowed to 20 per cent.
According to the figures of IMD, out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, the rainfall has been excess over 19, normal over 08. As per area-wise distribution, 75 per cent area of the country has received excess/normal rainfall. This is the second successive week after rainfall turned 24 per cent surplus following the three week lull that ended during the last week of August.
The reason for this sudden deluge is due to two low pressure areas over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, a rare meteorological phenomenon. An interaction of air masses coming from the two is largely responsible for the wet surge across the country.
The IMD experts have ruled out chances of withdrawal based on the prevalent symptoms. According to them, the presence of dry weather for five continuous days, a drop in moisture content and the setting in of anti-cyclonic circulation over western Rajasthan in the low strata of atmosphere are the conditions considered before announcing the withdrawal of the monsoon.