The road between Unnao and Rae Bareli, National Highway-232A does not exist in some patches, however in between stretches of non-existent road Central Uttar Pradesh’s educational revolution is clearly evident. Tens of graduate-level colleges have sprung up on either side of the road. Many of them clearly still have buildings under construction.
Somewhere in between, while driving through, a large group of first and second year students of Madan Gopal College of Science, Arts and Culture have just come out after writing their annual exams. The crowd is male-dominated, but there are a surprising number of girls, many of them in western clothes. Central Uttar Pradesh, often seen as a backwater is experiencing great social change to go with a massive demographic change as the population turns younger.
This is where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) youth outreach has been immensely successful. Students at this college and the neighbouring Raja Raghuram College have no doubts who they are voting for. “Iss baar Modi ki sarkar,” (This time there will be a Modi Government) they say without hesitation. When asked about the leher (wave) for Modi, they answer in the affirmative. This is despite the fact that several of these students reside in the Congress ‘pocket-borough’ of Rae Bareli, the seat represented by the UPA Chairperson and Gandhi family matriarch Sonia Gandhi.
By the time one reaches Rae Bareli, the sun is low in the horizon; however the town has clearly prospered. There are branches and ATMs of virtually every public-sector bank, and a few kilometres outside town closer to the large village of lalganj, a gleaming new Railway Coach Factory is taking shape. The locals though seem unhappy, “Sonia Gandhi will win again this time, but not with the bumper margins she always won with,” says a local shopkeeper Kumar Soni, complaining about how the main Kutchery Road through the heart of town is only repaired when the Bahu (daughter-in-law) comes to town like a show is touched up with boot-polish.
Soni’s word might be bit off because the man admits that he leads the local unit of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) but he is sitting at the shop of Riyaaz Khan, a local Muslim mechanic of Royal Enfield motorcycles. Khan, after complaining of the new-fangled, highly electronic new Bullet motorcycles, says he will vote for Sonia Gandhi, but then adds the country does need “a new direction”, although he does not quite elaborate.
leaving Rae Bareli towards lucknow, construction carries on apace on a Rs 600-crore project to widen the highway between this town, the centre of Sonia Gandhi’s constituency and the State capital lucknow. Outside town, at a cement godown Gunnu lal Yadav is clear about voting for Sonia Gandhi. This old-timer remembers the time the constituency voted out Sonia’s mother-in-law, the former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1977.
“That was a bad time for this constituency, and we suffered for over a decade. Thanks to Sonia Gandhi, we have proper roads, electricity and hospitals. I do not believe the Congress will win. In fact, I would tell my friends in neighbouring constituencies to vote for the BJP, but Rae Bareli needs a strong representative in Parliament, even in the Opposition.” Yadav’s belief is that there should be a Modi Government with Sonia Gandhi leading the Opposition.
Earlier that morning, before leaving the decay-ridden industrial city of Kanpur, it was time to see how the new party in the mix, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was faring. Dr Mahmood Rahmani, a renowned eye surgeon was bullish about his prospects and party leader Arvind Kejriwal’s vision for India. “We have to combat the three Cs that are dragging India down - Corruption, Communalism and Capitalisation. India’s grade has fallen to a ‘C’ we need an ‘A’ in Arvind Kejriwal.”
Rahmani’s party office in Civil lines is abuzz with activity; quite unlike the BJP city office at Navin Market. Yet, local shopkeepers, predictably along religious lines make this a clear contest between sitting Congress MP and Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal and Dr Murli Manohar Joshi of the BJP.
When we meet Surendra Maithani, the city chief of the BJP he sounds bullish and fends off the charges that Joshi is an ‘outsider’; “Not only is there a Modi wave there are a lot of new voters in this constituency. Our workers have helped 63,000 new young voters to register and there are 1,25,000 new voters in Kanpur this time”, he says confidently. “last time the results here were close, but people want a change this time”, he adds, although he admits that it is very unlikely that the 20 per cent of Muslim voters in town will move to the BJP. In fact, Muslim shopkeepers right below the BJP office are quite clear that they will vote for Jaiswal, despite both the AAP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidates being Muslim, “Why waste our vote,” a shopkeeper says, “My intention is to stop Joshi and the BJP.”
Jaiswal has been a popular MP; many locals praise some of his initiatives. But there is a clear disconnect between younger and older voters, not just in Kanpur and Rae Bareli but across UP and most importantly across caste lines. It is unclear what these youth expect from Narendra Modi, but they all want him to come to power. Older voters are much more circumspect and innately distrustful of the Delhi media, local issues matter they argue although almost everyone agrees that India is stuck in a rut.
However, things are not that simple, even younger voters talk of the ‘Pratyakshi’ (candidates) and some of them even those who are members of the party’s youth wing the BJYM are disappointed in the local BJP candidates. “Magar iss baar Pradhan Mantri ka election hai,” a student says, “Aur iss liye kamal par hi button dabaunga.”