Azamgarh: In corporate terminology, it may well be described as the Golden share, whose value is unequally high to ensure that in a division of votes, the holder of this one share decides the outcome. Some have described this voting trend as tantamount to an electoral veto — which ensures that only the party of Muslims’ choice comes to power.
But that myth was broken in 2014 and in view of Hindu consolidation of late, it may no longer hold true. Broadly, however, given the community’s propensity to vote as a block, the Muslim vote does often tilt the electoral balance in certain situations.
In the ongoing Assembly elections in UP, conventional opinion is that in a triangular contest that is being witnessed, it is the Muslim vote that will give the edge to either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party if, indeed, the community votes as a block. Usually, the Muslims are expected to go along with the SP, which under Mulayam Singh Yadav’s leadership has consistently retained their trust.
This time BJP supporters insist that Muslims are divided between the SP and the BSP and that will give the BJP a clear edge. Constituting between 12 and 18 per cent of the electorate, Muslims do hold the trump card in many districts of UP. If they vote as a block across the State, one of these two parties will get the key to Government formation in lucknow.
Conventional wisdom also is that the community indulges in “tactical voting” choosing the candidate perceived to be in the best position to defeat the BJP. And that anti-BJP candidate varies from constituency to constituency and party to party. But that approach may be self-defeating for that may end up bringing the BJP to power in the State as a whole even if it serves to trounce the BJP in certain select constituencies. Given this dilemma, which way will the Muslim vote go this timeIJ
Afsar Ghaznavi, a lawyer, in Azamgarh runs a private college in the town and belongs to a traditional Congress family. His office walls are adorned with old pictures (now turning a sepia shade) of Jawaharlal Nehru and other Congress leaders, including the last Congress MP from this Yadav-Muslim dominated seat, Mohsina Kidwai. He said categorically: “Since the decline of the Congress. UP Muslims found shelter in Mulayam Singh’s party as he had risked his office in a bid to save the Babri Masjid.”
Now, however, some feel Mayawati is stronger than him and it makes sense to rally round her. “But let me tell you 70 to 80 per cent of Muslims will stick to the Samajwadi Party — sink or swim with it. Although Mayawati has given 100-plus tickets to Muslims, who knows, she may turn around tomorrow and tie up with the BJP for the sake of power. This Mulayam will never do,” Ghaznavi asserted.
Gayas Azad Khan, Principal of the respected Shibli College in Azamgarh, was of roughly the same opinion. “Muslims have some grievances with the Samajwadi Party now. In the recent Rajya Sabha elections not a single seat out of seven was given to a Muslim. It is also true that many riots big and small, starting with Muzaffarnagar, have happened during the last five years. Still, on the whole Muslims feel safer with the SP than the BSP.” So, he concurred with Ghaznavi that 70 per cent Muslims will vote for Akhilesh Yadav.
The exceptions, he pointed out, will be in seats where Mayawati has nominated powerful Muslim candidates who can draw a part of the community’s vote on their own strength and win easily once Jatav votes are cast in their favour on Mayawati’s command.
The classic instance of a “strong” Muslim candidate being fielded with BSP support is in Mau, which was once part of Azamgarh but is a separate district now. Of this region, a British Collector had commented that this was the most difficult area to manage in UP as it was populated by “turbulent Ahirs and bigoted Julahas”, the reference being to lathi-happy Yadavs and arch-conservative, mullah-driven weavers or bunkars.
Mukhtar Ansari, a dreaded don of these parts, has been MlA from his own Qaumi Ekta Dal for 20 years now. Much of this time he has spent in jail which is why even Muslims are asking this time whether there is any point in voting for a jailbird who cannot do anything to help his voters.
At a gathering of Muslims in The Pioneer office here, a young aspiring leader, Altamash Ansari even questioned Mukhtar’s right to use the Ansari surname saying his ancestors were upper caste Ansars from Saudi Arabia and Mukhtar cannot claim to be an Ansari. He claimed the younger Muslims here will go with Altaf Ansari, the SP candidate. “Only those Muslims who have benefited from the don and daru-murga wale Hindus (Hindus lured by liquor and chicken) will vote for Mukhtar’s brother, Sibtullah, the BSP candidate. As BJP has tied up with the Rajbhar (a small MBC caste) party led by Sukhdev Rajbhar here, its candidate is also in a strong position.
Eastern UP will clinch the fate of all three prime contenders for lucknow’s kursi. The BJP is campaigning with fierce determination, consolidating its Hindu vote bank. The SP and the BSP are running neck-and-neck fighting every inch of the ground for the Muslim vote.
Undoubtedly, the bulk of the Muslim vote is heading towards the Samajwadi kitty. This plus the Yadav vote should be enough to see the SP through in most seats of Purvanchal. But a divided Muslim vote and the committed Jatav vote might come together to give the edge to the BSP. In the process of this division, it may well be the BJP which will laugh all the way to the vote bank.