The Southwest monsoon is expected to be normal at 100 per cent of the long Period Average (lPA) with a model error of plus and minus
5 per cent this year, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth in the $2 trillion economy.
Skymet Weather has forecast a 20 per cent chance of an above normal monsoon, and a 5 per cent chance of excess rain for India in 2018. The country defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning June. As per the forcast, June would record excess rainfall, July is likely to be normal and August below normal. Rainfall activity will pick up again in September.
Most parts of the country continue to witness warm and dry weather, with on and off pre-monsoon rain.
This is the first forecast of southwest monsoon this year. The India Meteorological Department will come out with its monsoon forecast in mid-April. According to Skymet, the lPA for the June to September rain is expected to be around 887 millimetres. This will come as a welcome relief, even as the Modi Government looks to achieve an 8 per cent GDP growth in 2019 as its policies and plan depend on the good monsoon.
Since, India’s economic survey has pinpointed agriculture as one of the major focus areas for Indian economy this year, an above average monsoon could translate into higher growth. This should be good news for a monsoon reliant economy like India if it is to achieve the target 8 per cent.
The Southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy. “A good monsoon not only helps in boosting the chances of bumper kharif harvest but also helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources, which are critical for rabi crops. Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September,” said officials of Agriculture Ministry.
The Skymet forecast also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of lPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the Southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the lPA) this year. In the last three seasons, actual rain was below Skymet’s first forecast in 2015 and 2016. However, the forecasts made in April were subsequently updated in the coming months.
Meanwhile, monthwise Skymet said that monsoon rain in June would be 111% of the lPA with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall. July rain is expected to be 97 per cent of the lPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal.
The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.
In August last year, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rain equivalent to 96 per cent of lPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August. In September, the country is expected to receive rain around 101% of lPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.
The 2017 Southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the lPA as against the India Meteorological Department (IMDs) forecast of rain to be normal at 98 per cent of the lPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.
The monsoon last year after making a steady start in June and July, went for an extended break in August and also till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall.
Though around 216 districts in the country received deficient rainfall in 2017 Southwest monsoon season, but three State Governments of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan covering 270 tehsils in 52 districts have officially declared drought. Together, they sought financial assistance of over Rs 110 billion from the Central Government.