The second half of the monsoon season (August and September) is expected to receive “normal” rainfall in the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), however, has recorded an overall deficiency of minus 3 per cent from June 1 to August 7 following which several parts of the country are witnessing drought-like conditions.
While Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Puducherry (Union Territory), Goa, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Manipur are starved of rain, States like Gujarat, Rajasthan and several parts of the North-East are reeling under floods. The National Capital Region has recorded 30 per cent less rainfall till August 8.
The IMD has predicted generous rainfall over the country during the remaining two months of the monsoon season. The IMD expects rainfall estimated to be 100 per cent of the long Period Average (lPA) with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent.
“The atmospheric conditions over the Pacific Ocean continue to reflect neutral El-Nino conditions. The latest forecast also indicates neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions till 2018 spring season,” the IMD said
IMD senior officer Charan Singh has told The Pioneer that rainfall between 94 and 104 per cent of the lPA is considered “normal” and August is expected to witness 99 per cent of the lPA. The weather body added that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also neutral, which is a “good sign for the remaining two months”. The IOD is a phenomenon associated with heating of the Indian Ocean.
As per IMD data, seven States have received excess rainfall while 21 States recorded normal rainfall. At least eight States have recorded less rainfall (deficient) during monsoon. A total of 210 districts in the country have recorded deficient monsoon or less rainfall while 278 received normal rainfall. Fourteen districts received 14 large deficiency, 99 excess rain and 30 large excess rainfall till date.
The IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy rain at a few places and extremely heavy rain at isolated places over the Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on Wednesday. Heavy to very heavy rain and extremely heavy rain at isolated places is very likely over Assam, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and east Rajasthan and Meghalaya.
According to Skymet Weather, monsoon has gone subdued over most parts of the country due to the dissipation of the low pressure areas, particularly the one over Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Whenever, monsoon trough shifts towards foothills of Himalayas, weather of southern region of the trough goes dry. These are also known as break monsoon conditions.