Rain God is set to be more than generous during the coming weeks. The Met department on Tuesday revised its monsoon forecast to 98 per cent for this year from 96 per cent earlier.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General KJ Ramesh said the revision to 98 per cent precipitation of the long Period Average (lPA) was done because of reduced chances of occurrence of an El-Nino, a phenomenon associated with the heating of the Pacific waters.
In its initial forecast released in April, the IMD had said the country could receive 96 per cent of the lPA.
“We are expecting a good rainfall across the country this year. July is likely to receive 96 per cent of the lPA while August is expected to witness precipitation of 99 per cent of the lPA,” Ramesh said.
The news should bring cheers to the farmers and policy planners. A good monsoon can act as shield against possible disruption of economic activities due to implementation of GST from July 1.
The Government’s effort to improve agriculture growth is singularly depended on a generous monsoon. The GDP figure of last quarter showed that the agriculture production was on upswing even though several sectors of economy slowed down due to demonetisation.
The progress of monsoon is also expected to bring relief from heatwave, sweeping most part of north Indian plains and several parts of central India. The temperature is likely to witness a drop in the next two days due to a western disturbance, which will bring thundershowers to this belt.
The IMD chief said rainfall in central India is likely to be 100 per cent of lPA and 99 per cent in the southern peninsula, where several parts are reeling under drought.
Northeast and northwest India, a region that has been receiving deficient monsoon for the three consecutive years, is likely to get 96 per cent of the rainfall of the lPA.
Northwest India comprises major agricultural states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, apart from Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu & Kashmir.
According to meteorological parlance, anything between 96 and 104 is considered as “normal” rainfall and below it is “deficient”. Rainfall in the range of 104 to 100 is “above normal” and anything that surpasses it is considered as “excess.”
The IMD chief also allayed fears of occurrence of an El-Nino. “In February, all weather models indicated a possibility of an El-Nino. However, the model readings now indicate neutral ENSO conditions are likely till end of this year.
“The US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have also ruled out chances of an El-Nino,” Ramesh said.
El-Nino is phenomena associated with heating up of the Pacific waters and is believed to have an adverse impact on the southwest monsoon.
Expressing satisfaction over the advancement of monsoon, which hit Kerala on May 30, Ramesh said it is expected to reach Goa on June 8, Mumbai and parts of West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand on June 13-14.
He, however, declined to comment on when the monsoon is expected to hit Delhi. The normal onset date for monsoon in the national Capital is June 29.