For the next one week, till August 14, to be precise, the monsoon is expected to continue its “active phase” over north-west India. However, the southern Peninsula may see normal or below normal rain till August 19. Simultaneously, a fresh Western Disturbance moving across Jammu & Kashmir is expected to bring light to moderate rain over the northern States, including parts of Delhi-NCR, Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh.
As per the data of India Meteorological Department (IMD), the week concluded with 6 per cent above average rainfall. The north-west India recorded the highest surplus of 26 per cent. Ample rainfall received in the first fortnight of August has helped reduce rainfall deficit in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. However, peninsular India that registered a surplus of 1 per cent during the concluding week is likely to plunge into deficit given the predictions of reduced intensity in the region.
According to weather scientists in the IMD, a low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and a cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan may continue to persist for the next two-three days. To add to this, a cyclonic circulation is brewing over the Arakan coast in South Myanmar and its western regions. It has also entered the regions of east-central Bay of Bengal. This circulation is expected to move fully into the Bay and intensify the development of low pressure zone, which would help boost monsoon over central and adjoining north-western India.
Meanwhile, northern States, including Delhi, will get respite from humidity with the IMD predicting moderate to heavy showers in Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The threats of flashfloods, cloudburst and landslide loom large over the hilly regions.
Delhi has received a record eight per cent surplus monsoon, following widespread rains during last week of July.
According to Skymet, the private weather forecaster of India, multiple weather systems developed over south of Delhi, have sucked weather activity towards it diverting and confining it to central India. This is responsible for the present bout of humid weather, said the weather experts.
However, the axis of monsoon trough is all set to shift towards north. This coupled with the Western Disturbance will affect Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and hilly States of north India. In the process, rain will commence in the region, including parts of Delhi, within 24-48 hours. The showers will initially be patchy with low intensity, but gradually it will pick up pace, resulting in intermittent downpours in most parts of northern India, during the next 3-4 days.
To add to the above, there is yet another cyclonic circulation over Assam and Meghalaya region and with this, light to moderate showers with isolated heavy rains will continue over the region.