Unlike her rivals who have fielded a battery of warriors and entertainers to woo the voters in the crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, BSP chief Mayawati has taken the entire burden of her party on her shoulders.
Away from the media glare, Mayawati has been working hard since her rout in the lok Sabha polls to regain her vote bank. First, the BSP held a Statewide protest against the contentious amendment to the land acquisition Bill. Then, the party organised its cadre to take on the ruling SP Government on the ‘deteriorating’ law and order situation. The party cadre have also been working among farmers, demanding better and speedy compensation for damage to crops by unseasonal rain and hailstorms.
Interestingly, the BSP has not held such widespread protest in nearly 10 years. The party’s preferred methods of expressing dissent had been through news conferences or rallies. Mayawati avoided direct confrontations with the ruling dispensation to protect the party’s cadre from politically motivated criminal cases. However, after one of the most humiliating defeats in last Parliament polls, Mayawati was forced to change her strategy and asked the cadre to take to the streets to raise public welfare issues.
In 2014, the party got only 19.77 per cent votes in UP, compared to 27.42 per cent in the 2009 general elections, when it won 21 lok Sabha seats – 20 in the State and one in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh.
According to experts, the dent in BSP’s vote share indicates that there has been a significant migration of its core voters, the Scheduled Castes , to the BJP.
“After the lok Sabha drubbing, it became imperative for Mayawati to change her strategy to be heard among her own voters,” says a senior Dalit leader of the party.
“Mayawati needs to communicate with them (the voters). They have started raising questions about BSP’s relevance and stand on issues,” said a leader.
Soon after the lok Sabha defeat, Mayawati took many steps to recover lost ground. The first thing she did was to disband all bhaichara (brotherhood) committees, which formed the backbone of BSP’s caste-based politics.
Secondly, she announced candidates for the Assembly elections two-and-a-half years in advance. They were asked to work harder and nurse their Assembly segments. To avoid further defection of her core Dalit vote base, Mayawati ordered restructuring of all the booth- and sector-level committees. One sector comprises 30 booths.
“A provision has been made through which 40 per cent of the seats in these committees are now reserved for the youth,” said a BSP member, who wanted to remain anonymous.
The party’s focus on the youth is based on data. According to different sources, 38.8 per cent of India’s population is less than 18 years of age while 28.9 per cent more is aged between 19 and 35 years. According to the 2011 Census, of 725 million voters in 2014, 149.36 were first timers.
The challenges before the BSP are to attract this large number of young voters to it, as well as communicate Ambedkar’s and founder Kanshi Ram’s vision to youth.
“The cadre have started asking what’s there for them in the party. They are expecting something. So, we have to find a meaningful work for them,” the BSP leader said.
Mayawati’s strength is still Dalits. Though she has ordered the restructuring of the committees, members from the Scheduled Castes are still going to head them, as the BSP chief feels people from other caste may abandon the party for petty gains but the core support group will not.
Sources also said the four-time former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh was putting together a team of 100 experts and scholars to advise her on the pulse of the voters.
But is this enough to make her Chief Minister for the fifth timeIJ
Party leaders claimed caste equations would play an important role in the winning strategy and they are focusing on Muslim votes. If Muslims prefer BSP over the SP-Congress alliance in her stronghold, Mayawati could well spring a surprise.
The BSP has already started wooing Muslims. Besides giving tickets to at least 100 Muslim candidates the party has deputed its general secretary Nasimuddin Siddiqui to hold cadre camps in each district of the riot-hit western Uttar Pradesh. It is easier for the party to reach out to the Muslim communities, which suffered the brunt of Muzaffarnagar riots in September 2013, a few months before the general elections.
To attract Brahmin votebank, Mayawati asked her party’s Brahmin face Satish Mishra to hold Brahman Sabha, particularly on reserved seats so that Dalit, Muslim combine and support of Brahmin could title the balance in her favour.
Besides this outreach, Mayawati is learnt to have appointed some Muslim leaders at various party posts in the western Uttar Pradesh. Her party is also basing its success on the “failures” of Modi Government at the Centre and the SP Government in the State.
To counter exit of some senior BSP leaders, including Swami Prasad Maurya, Jugal Kishore, etc., Mayawati has inducted senior SP leader like Ambika Chowdhary, Narad Rai and three Muslim MlAs from Congress.
The merger of Quami Ekta Dal of Mukhtar Ansari with the BSP is also aimed at giving edge to the BSP in at least three districts of Eastern UP.
The BSP is also trying to exploit a reported statement by RSS leader Manmohan Viadya for a review of reservation.
Mayawati is not only assuring her community members that once in power, the BSP will not let BJP to abolish reservation, but she is also promising reservation to poor upper caste youths.
Tens of thousands are turning up to listen to Mayawati, but her party is counting on the silent support base that finds no reflection in the pre poll forecasts and television debates.