There are worrying signs for the agriculture sector as a weakened monsoon pattern has resulted in a two per cent rainfall deficit so far, with vast stretches of Jharkhand, West Bengal, Vidarbha, Kerala and Karnataka not registering the expected rainfall.
According to the weatherman, the country received 237.7 mm rainfall between June 1 and July 9, which is 4.8 mm less than normal rainfall. In normal monsoon, rainfall should be above 242.5 mm across the country.
The weak monsoon has resulted in deficit rainfall in five regions, including the Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, Kerala and South Karnataka, which recorded 20 to 45 per cent less rain during the monsoon.
As per data, West Bengal has received 20 per cent less rainfall while Jharkhand received 24 per cent less rainfall till July 9. Karnataka has received 20 to 35 per cent less rainfall and Kerala has received 43 per cent less rain in the last 39 days. This may impact cultivation of Kharif crops in the country. Some of the regions are key producers of paddy, pulses, oilseeds and cotton and the progress of monsoon would boost the prospects of these crops.
The weatherman is hoping that the situation may improve once the monsoon covers Central India especially Punjab, Haryana and the entire Rajasthan after July 14. The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir is moving northeastwards.
The weatherman forecast that the Northern limit of Monsoon (NlM) continues to pass through Barmer, Sikar, Sonipat, Shimla, Una and Jammu and favourable conditions are likely to develop for further advance of the south-west monsoon into remaining parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu division, some more parts of Haryana and some parts of Punjab during the next two to three days.
On the other hand, officials of the Ministry of Agriculture have expressed concern over the deficit rainfall in these States which may impact the crops. The south-west monsoon has been active over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
J&K, Haryana and Rajasthan are among the States which have received excess monsoon rain during this period. The weatherman predicted that the rain will start gradually decreasing after July 16 from the North Eastern States which are flooded these days.
As far as Delhi/NCR is concerned, the monsoon made a delayed onset over Delhi on July 2. Since then, rains have remain far and few over the city. The weatherman has predicted that in Delhi/NCR rain is all set to return by Tuesday and would continue for the next two to three days. As on July 9, the cumulative rainfall for Delhi is surplus by 29 per cent, with the city recording 117 mm of rain against the average of 106.4 mm from June 1 to July 9. The monsoon trough which is at present running north of Delhi will gradually start shifting southwards during the next 24 hours.
According to the weather forecast, a trough of low pressure is also seen running from this system across UP and Bihar up to Gangetic West Bengal. Due to this, moisture incursion will increase over the region resulting in cloud development. Hence, heavy to very heavy rain is likely to continue at a few places over Bihar during the next 48 hours. Patna has registered 41.7 mm rainfall (recorded between 8:30 am and 5:30 pm) while 68.7 mm was recorded in the past 24 hours. Gaya registered 1.8 mm rainfall while Purnea and Bhagalpur witnessed 1.3 and 1.0 mm rainfall respectively.
The MET has predicted heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand. Heavy rain at isolated places is likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura in N-E region, north Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, UP, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu, south Konkan and Goa, north Chhattisgarh, coastal Karnataka and Kerala on Tuesday.
According to Skymet Weather, in wake of this trough, southeasterly winds have been blowing over Chennai city and this has increased the moisture. This led to cloud development by late evening on Sunday and thundershowers had started around 8 pm that lasted for two to three hours.
Now also, weather conditions will remain conducive for light to moderate monsoon rains and thundershowers to continue over Chennai for the next 48 hours.