March, April and May are expected to witness searing heat with mercury climbing to record levels over most parts of northeast, east, central India and some parts of northwest India.
In its forecast for the MAM (March, April, May), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said above normal minimum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the country except south penisnuslar India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
This means north India, including Delhi and NCR, is likely to witness a warmer March due to the rise in temperature. Delhi recorded the highest temperature for the month of February in the last 55 years, making it difficult for the residents to step out of their houses during the daytime.
Linking the rising trend in temperature with global warming, the IMD said India reported the warmest February this year since 1877 with average maximum temperatures touching 29.54 degrees Celsius.
Addressing a virtual press conference, S C Bhan, the Head of the Hydromet and Agromet Advisory Services of the IMD, said there was little probability of heat waves in March, but most parts of the country could experience extreme weather conditions in April and May. The monthly average maximum temperature for February was the highest since 1877, Bhan said in response to a question, linking the rising trend to the phenomenon of global warming.
“Monthly maximum temperatures for March 2023 are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except penisnuslar India where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely to be seen. Above normal monthly minimum temperatures are most likely during March, 2023 over most parts of India except south peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely,” it said.
These forecasts have increased the concerns over the standing rabi crop, especially wheat and horticulture, and chances of the gross value added (GVA) in “agriculture allied activities” losing some momentum in 2023-24.
The likelihood of scorching summer heat could be damaging for the wheat crop which has just entered flowering stage. Lower wheat output could also lead to a depletion of the official stocks of the grain.
The agriculture sector has been growing at an average annual growth rate of 4.6 per cent during the last six years - it grew 3.3 per cent in 2021, 3 per cent in 2022 and is seen to grow at 3.5 per cent in 2023 as per the first advance estimate. In March last year, the average maximum temperature was 30.7 degrees Celsius, the highest in 127 years.
The rainfall during March 2023 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (83-117 per cent of LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country during March based on data from 1971 to 2020 is about 29.9 mm.
The probability forecast for the minimum temperatures (Fig.1b) indicates that during the upcoming hot weather season (MAM), normal to above normal minimum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the country except south penisnuslar India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Bhan said currently La Nina conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, which was expected to weaken and turn to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during the pre-monsoon season. He said it was too early to forecast the impact of El Nino conditions on the monsoon season. “April would be a better time to forecast the impact of El Nino on the monsoon. We will issue a forecast mid-April,” he said.