India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall in June-September this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather has said.
After four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rain during the monsoon season, this forecast comes as a concern for the agricultural sector, which heavily relies on monsoon rain for crop production.
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the agricultural bowl of north India, are likely to observe less-than-normal rain during the second half of the season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to release its forecast for the monsoon season, but it has predicted above-normal maximum temperatures and heatwaves in most parts of the country from April to June.
According to Skymet, the rainfall to be 94 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm due to an increased chance of El-Nino, which typically brings dry weather.
In its previous forecast in January, Skymet had forecast the monsoon 2023 to be sub-par and now maintains that outlook.
Rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres for the four-month monsoon season beginning June is defined as average, or normal.
As per predictions, in June, 70 per cent chances of normal monsoon; 10 per cent of above normal and 20 per cent chance of below normal. For July, there are 50 per cent chance of normal monsoon and 30 per cent below normal monsoon. There are chances of 6o per cent below normal monsoon in August and 70 per cent in September.
“Courtesy Triple-Dip-La Nina, southwest monsoon observed above normal/normal rainfall for the last four consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended. Likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon,” said Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet. Besides El Nino, there are other factors too influencing monsoon. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino, when sufficiently strong. IOD is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of monsoon. El Nino and IOD are likely to be ‘out of phase’ and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. Second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated. Skymet said agriculture bowl Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh are likely to get less than normal rains during the second half of the season. Farmers suffered losses as unseasonal rains and hailstorms last month damaged ripening crops such as wheat.
Nearly half of India’s farmland depends on monsoon for crops such as rice. The monsoon is crucial for summer crops as it brings about 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall. It is crucial to one of the mainstays of India’s economy, agriculture.
Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending besides impacting inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps food inflation under check and ample harvests raise rural incomes and help inject demand into the economy.
Skymet said there is a 40 per cent chance of below normal (between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA), 25 per cent of normal (between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA), 15 per cent of above normal (between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA) and 0 per cent chance of excess (over 110 per cent of LPA) rainfall.