India continues to maintain an edge over Pakistan in nuclear capabilities, with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) noting that New Delhi has not only expanded its nuclear arsenal from 172 warheads in 2024 to an estimated 180 in 2025, but also made significant progress in developing advanced nuclear delivery systems. However, the more significant development lies not in the number of warheads, but in technological advancements and evolving military posture.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ( SIPRI) report, India’s new ‘canisterised’ missiles, which allow warheads to be pre-mounted and transported more safely, could potentially carry nuclear warheads even during “peacetime”.
If these systems are deployed with warheads, it would mark a major doctrinal shift, enabling faster launch readiness and possibly indicating a move toward a more flexible deterrence strategy. These next-generation systems may also be able to deliver multiple warheads using a single missile in the near future.
India is believed to have once again slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2024 and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery systems.
Among the newest of India’s next-generation delivery platforms are the Agni Prime (Agni-P) missile and the Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV)-capable Agni-5 system. According to India’s Ministry of Defence, Agni-P is a new-generation, advanced variant of the Agni series of missiles. It is a canisterised missile with a range of between 1,000 and 2,000 kilometres. The latest test of the Agni-P was conducted last year.
Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads, and SIPRI notes that it continues to develop new missile delivery systems and produce fissile material at a steady pace-signs of a country actively expanding its arsenal despite lacking transparency or robust oversight mechanisms.
Unlike India, which maintains a declared No First Use policy, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains deliberately ambiguous and heavily focused on short-range tactical nuclear weapons, designed for battlefield use. This approach, often framed as a deterrent against conventional Indian military superiority, is viewed by many analysts as highly destabilising, since it lowers the threshold for nuclear use in a crisis and increases the risk of early escalation.
SIPRI suggests that Pakistan’s arsenal could grow further over the next decade, especially as it tries to match India’s advancing delivery systems and strategic capabilities. However, Pakistan’s continued reliance on opaque doctrine, coupled with its history of nuclear proliferation links and political instability, makes its expanding arsenal a significant source of regional and global concern.
According to the report, nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed states-the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel-continued intensive nuclear modernization programmes in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions. Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12 241 warheads in January 2025, about 9614 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 3912 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft and the rest were in central storage. Around 2100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the USA, but China may now keep some warheads on missiles during peacetime.
Israel’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at 80 to 90 warheads, though the country continues to maintain its long-standing policy of nuclear opacity-neither confirming nor denying that it possesses nuclear weapons. This ambiguity is strategic, allowing Israel to project deterrence without inviting direct international scrutiny or arms control obligations.