The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will begin providing State-specific monsoon forecast from next year. This will be in addition to the zone-wise predictions.
“The National Monsoon Mission has already been approved. This Rs400-crore ambitious project would begin by introducing the basic dynamic model. Big computers have already been installed, the programmes have been put in place,” said Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan on Sunday.
The aim of the mission is to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon on different time scales.
From next year, the IMD will start a spatial model, that will come out with monthly models. These are in advanced stages. There is a detailed plan to take it to the block level in the next 2-3 years,” said the Minister. The Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences further said that from 2018-19 it will be extended to include other seasons.
The IMD currently gives zone-specific daily monsoon forecast during the season covering North-West, Central India, Southern peninsula, East and North-East regions. These are further divided into sub-zones, where the respective predictions of monsoons are made.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has allotted the responsibility of execution and coordination of monsoon mission to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
The IITM is collaborating with NCEP (USA), MoES organisations and various academic organisations and institutions under NMM. Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP, USA has been identified as the basic modelling system for the purpose as it is one of the best among the currently available models in the world.
Further, rain radars and other observing systems would also be installed in the western Himalayas and later in the Northeastern region. The deployment of new systems in the mountainous regions will help obtain a clear picture of topography, said the experts. Through the new equipment, the IMD will try to understand how the Himalayas impact general circulation over the entire region and make more accurate forecasts.