The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has scored over international weather forecast agencies by accurately predicting the strength and impact of cyclone Phailin. IMD, which is often questioned for the credibility of its estimates, had predicted that Phailin will be a ‘very severe cyclone’ and refused to categorise it as a ‘super cyclone’.
While several international agencies including the US Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Britain’s Met Office had termed Phailin as a “super cyclone”. A noted American meteorologist Eric Holthaus had on Friday also said that the IMD was underestimating the potential winds and surges of Phailin and forecast it will be a Category 5 cyclone (the most powerful).
“Being a national meteorological department we cannot predict the way other agencies do as this will lead to panic. We stuck to our stand and told the media what we have been saying since the start. Our predictions proved to be more or less accurate,” IMD chief lS Rathore said addressing the media. The met department had consistently maintained that the storm’s sustained windspeeds will be around 220 kmh, one category below a “super cyclone”.
“They (other forecasts) have been issuing over-warnings, we have been contradicting them. That is all that I want to say. As a scientist, we have our own opinion and we stuck to that. We told them that is what is required as a national weather service - to keep people informed with the reality without being influenced by over-warning,” Rathore said. He patted his department’s back in “accurately” predicting the cyclonic system, asserting the forecast has been “quite correct”.
Rathore also said the IMD took a series of measures in the past few years to get accurate predictions. “Since the XI Five Year Plan, we have taken series of measures. We have been improving our observation system, which has helped to better define the initial condition. Development of human resources has also helped to a large extent,” he added.
IMD noted that creation of a separate Ministry of Earth Sciences was also crucial as this led to better interactions and transfer of operational systems. The Union Government recently conceded in Parliament that the accuracy of long-range monsoon forecasts in the last four years had only been about 50 per cent, an admission that is expected to strengthen critics of the IMD who have questioned the credibility of its estimates.