Despite the increase in rainfall across the country during the last few weeks, the monsoon is weakening again. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), no resurgence is expected for at least the next two weeks. The overall monsoon deficit in the country stands at 18 per cent.
Even as floods triggered by heavy rains have inundated several parts of northern India, sources in IMD predicted that rainfall will be weak, especially over the plains of North-West India and Gujarat till September 3. It will be a matter of concern if the same situation stretches further.
The threat remains high for a long-term drought in the North-West due to the weak monsoon. There are little indications of improvement in the situation over the next two to four weeks.
IMD predicted that the overall rainfall will be sporadic over the next week in most parts of the country. There will be scattered rainfall on a day-to-day basis. However, heavy rain will be witnessed over the central interior, in areas that had well below normal rain in the season.
In the South, too, rainfall is likely to slacken during the week ahead, in areas experiencing close to normal and even above normal rain. However, according to IMD, better rain in September and October will keep these areas closer to normal than the rest of the country.
The sources, however, confirmed that this break in rainfall was no indication of the withdrawal of monsoon.
The normal date for the withdrawal of monsoon is September 1, beginning from West Rajasthan. However, since the past few years the withdrawal has commenced from mid-September, they said.
According to IMD data, the country has so far received 470.2 mm of rain as against the normal 571.1 mm. This has increased the deficit from the earlier 17 per cent to 18 per cent.
As per area-wise distribution, at least 45 per cent of the country has received deficient/scanty rainfall. So far, North-West India has the highest deficit of 29 per cent, followed by East and North-eastern part with 23 per cent. While Central India has narrowed its rain fall shortage to nine per cent, South Peninsula is facing a 15 per cent shortage.
The IMD had earlier suggest that rainfall as a whole across the country is likely to be 87 per cent of long Period Average (lPA )from the earlier predicted 93 per cent due to its slow start. The rainfall is said to be “below normal” when it is 90-96 per cent of lPA. However, the latest overall figure of 87 per cent rain indicates “deficient” rain.