India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday has warned of the looming threat of El Nino over the South-West monsoon this year which will result in below normal rainfall in the country. This could pose as a major challenge for the new Government which will assume office in the third week of May.
According to weather experts, there is a 60 per cent possibility of El Nino during the coming monsoon. The probability of a normal monsoon is 35 per cent, while that of a below normal monsoon is 33 per cent, the experts added.The effect of El Nino can also bring about below average rain in Sri lanka, Bhutan, and some parts of Pakistan, while an average monsoon is expected in Bangladesh, Nepal and Afghanistan, the sources said.
The Met Department predicted that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 95 per cent of the long period average with an error of plus or minus 5 per cent. last year, the rainfall in India was 6 per cent above average. This was contrary to the initial forecast of 98 per cent rainfall by the IMD which got exceeded and the country received over 106 per cent rainfall. The IMD experts informed that according to the results of majority of Seasonal Forecast models there is warming trend in the sea surface over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This is expected to reach to the anomalous El-Nino level during the period of South-West monsoon, they said. According to them, the El Nino is likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon.El Nino refers to a weather phenomenon that is usually associated with below-average rainfall in the country that follows from the abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean. This also results in rise in surface pressure over Indian Ocean, which can result in extremes of climate change pattern, resulting in droughts or flash floods.
The effect of El Nino on the country’s monsoon was last seen in 2009, when the total rainfall was 23 per cent below normal and the country suffered a severe drought. However, in 1997, that was one of the strongest years of El Nino years, rainfall was 2 per cent above average. El Nino occurs in every three to five years and can last up to 18 months.The rainfall between 90 to 96 per cent is catergorised as below normal and rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent is termed as normal rainfall. The forecast for 2014 comes after the country witnessed four consecutive years of above normal to normal monsoons.