Lockdown cuts doubling rate even as growth rate down to 40%; but cases above 14,300
The total number of coronavirus cases shot up from 500 to 13,500 during the 24-day of countrywide lockdown so far, but the growth rate of the pandemic has declined by 40 per cent since the lockdown was imposed from March 25.
The Union Health Ministry data has said that the ratio between number of patients recovered and number of deaths is 80:20 and 13.6 per cent people have recovered so far.
Addressing the media, Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, Union Health Ministry, said the Ministry has analysed the data of cases of novel coronavirus in the country in many ways. It has been found that the rate of recovery of the patient is higher than that of the deceased. “At least 1,749 people recovered so far which is 13.6 per cent as on today,” he said.
He also said the doubling rate that means in how many days numbers of cases get doubled in the country has also reduced. “Our doubling rate of the number of cases is 6.2 days. The analysis is based on data of the last 7 days. It was 3 days before the lockdown. It is a product of how we are managing situations at field level. This is an ongoing process. We need to intensify our vigil to reduce the doubling rate even more,” said Agarwal.
“The doubling rate is lower than the national level in 19 States and Union Territories. Kerala, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh, Ladakh, Puducherry, Delhi, Bihar, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Assam, Tripura all have low doubling rates of coronavirus cases,” Aggarwal added.
Agarwal explained that the data was analysed in another way also in which growth factor and outcome ratio were calculated. “Growth factor is calculated by comparing today’s cases with the number of cases that came on Thursday.
“We have found that the average growth factor is at 1.2 since April 1 which was 2.1 at an average between March 15 and March 31. There is 40 per cent decline in average growth factor even as we have increased the number of testing by testing even ILI (Influenza Like Illness) and SARI (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) samples,’’ Agarwal said.
He also said that the outcome ratio which is number of recovered people against number of deaths stood in the proportion of 80:20 in India which is higher than that in several other counties.
“A total of 1,749 people have been cured, which is equal to 13.6 per cent of the total number of cases. With 1,007 fresh cases of coronavirus reported in the last 24 hours, the total number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the country has reached 13,387. A total of 23 new deaths have been recorded in the last 24 hours,” he added.
“Although every death is a matter of concern for the country, we have found that the ratio between recovered Covid-19 patients vs number of deaths, is 80:20 in India, which is higher than that in several other countries,” said Agarwal.
The Health Ministry, in its daily update, said 452 deaths have been reported in India so far, with the highest — 194 — getting reported from Maharashtra, followed by MP, where 57 deaths have been reported so far. Maharashtra remained the worst hit State with positive cases rising to 3,205, followed by New Delhi at 1,640, Tamil Nadu at 1,267 and Rajasthan at 1,131, as per the Health Ministry data.