In the orange city of Nagpur where voters’ identities are cast(e) in stone, the BJP’s former national president, “Mr Popular” and a Brahmin, Nitin Gadkari is leaving no stone unturned to make his well-crafted “social engineering” work for him as he takes on four-time Congress MP Vilas Muttemwar, in the most prestigious electoral battle of his political career.
As he fights his first direct election 29 years after he suffered a defeat at the hands of Gev Avari of the Congress in Nagpur (West) Assembly constituency, Gadkari knows for sure he faces a formidable challenge. But, he had his job cut out for him the moment he formally announced his intent to seek election to lok Sabha from Nagpur, in January last year.
The “social engineering,” being practiced by Gadkari, should be seen in the context of the fact that there are an estimated 7.5 lakh Muslims and Dalits among 18.5 lakh voters in Nagpur lok Sabha constituency. Accounting for a little over 40 per cent of the total electorate, Muslims and Dalits collectively play a very crucial role in the polls.
Though he had kept in touch with all castes and communities across Nagpur over the years, Gadkari, whose writ runs in the Nagpur Municipal Corporation, pushed his “social engineering” agenda in August last year, when he ensured the victory of his hand-picked Muslim nominee Jaitunbi Ashfaq Patel in the deputy mayoral elections of the NMC.
Gadkari had foreseen that Jaitunbi Ashfaq Patel’s presence in the important civic post would come in handy for him in mustering Muslim votes in his lok Sabha contest in a big way. No wonder that a grateful Patel has been working enthusiastically and hard for Gadkari in his campaign for 2014 Nagpur lok Sabha seat, ever since she was elected to the second top position in the local civic body.
Reports from the ground suggest that Gadkari enjoys support from among the lower middle class Muslims and Dalit Hindus, who account for nearly half the number of voters in the 7.5-lakh Muslim-Dalit vote-bank. Says senior journalist Rahul Pande, who had worked closely with the BJP’s Banwarilal Purohit in the 2009 lok Sabha polls: “Recently, we did a sample survey among lower middle class Muslim employees and found that a majority of them favoured Gadkari over Muttemwar. But, the middle and upper class Muslims are not favourably disposed towards Gadkari. Same is the case with neo-Buddhists who openly rooting for Muttemwar.”
“The 2009 poll (in which BJP’s Purohit lost to Muttemwar of the Congress by a margin of 24,399 votes) was more like a T20 cricket match. Purohit was leading against Muttemwar till the 18th round. But, the situation changed in the next few rounds. Finally Muttemwar won by a small margin. As of now in this poll Gadkari has a clear edge over the incumbent rival Muttemwar,” Pande added.
What could not be missed during the hectic campaigning that ended on Tuesday was the fact that the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi did not address an election rally in Nagpur, despite having made two trips to eastern Maharashtra - better known as Vidarbha -and addressed as many as four election rallies in other lok Sabha constituencies. Informed sources in the BJP said that Gadkari had himself requested Modi to give Nagpur a skip.
There are three versions making the rounds in the local political circles as to why Gadkari had requested Modi not to address a rally in Nagpur. First, Gadkari wanted to avoid polarisation of votes, a thing that would have happened definitely had Modi addressed a rally in Nagpur. Second, Gadkari did not want Modi to hog credit for his victory. Third, he did not want to waste time, manpower and money over the preparation for organizing a rally for Modi, a rally he could do without.
Though the contest in Nagpur will for all practical purposes be between Gadkari and Muttemwar, one cannot write off Aam Aadmi Party candidate Anjali Damania easily. An anti-corruption activist, Damania shot to fame after she accused the then BJP national president Nitin Gadkari of having partnership with the NCP chief Sharad Pawar.
Hours before winding up his campaign for the April 10 lok Sabha polls, Gadkari said: “The response that I have received from voters belonging to all castes, communities and religions was more than what I had expected. The tremendous response that I have received from all sections of voters has made me confident that I will win the polls by a sizeable margin of votes.” Notwithstanding the confidence of his victory expressed by Gadkari and those in the BJP camp, one cannot safely say that the BJP’s former president will pull it off. Though he has to contend with a very high anti-incumbency, Muttemwar is banking heavily on the traditional vote banks, especially Dalits and Muslims, in a city which has been a Congress stronghold since Independence and from where Purohit is the only BJP candidate to have been elected to the lok Sabha so far.
The Congress is pinning its hopes on the Shahi Imam of Delhi’s Jama Masjid Syed Ahmed Bukhari’s call to Muslims to support the Congress to ensure against the division of secular votes and Cobrapost’s sting operation unraveling the “real” conspiracy behind the demolition of the Babri Masjid.
Nagpur-based agro-economist and an activist for separate statehood for Vidarbha, Shrinivas Khandewale said: “Both Shahi Imam’s call and Cobrapost’s sting operation will have an impact on the minds of Muslims. The two developments, especially Cobrapost’s sting operation, have potential enough to erode Gadkari’s support base among Muslim and turn the tide in favour of the Congress.”
“Between Gadkari and Muttemwar, the latter has a relatively clean image. But, Muttemwar reels under huge anti-incumbency for his having hardly done anything for Nagpur during his last four terms as an MP,” Khandewale said. Though an “outsider” to the orange city, the third major contender in the poll fray Anjali Damania has made her presence felt in Nagpur. As she winds up her campaign for the polls, Damania laments that the media has totally ignored the efforts put in by her in the campaign and the support she is receiving.
“We have been getting a raw deal from the media since the beginning. For instance, I did road shows and open campaigning continuously for 13 hours yesterday. Not a single television channel or a newspaper carried a report on our campaign. Eight Muslim organisations and at least four Dalit organisations announced their support to my candidature, yesterday. Again, not a single TV channel reported the support I received from various organizations. From the efforts that I have put in, I am confident of winning the polls,” Damania said.
An anecdote that Khandewale comes up with during the course of his conversation with The Pioneer sums up aptly the mood of voters prevailing in Nagpur. “The other day, when our regular postman came to deliver mail, I asked him as to which way the wind is blowing. He told me that from the feedback he was get during official rounds, there is still some confusion in the minds of many people, both as to their electoral preference this time and as to what the poll outcome will be. I could not agree more with the postman,” Khandewale said.