The exit polls for the lok Sabha elections have predicted an impressive victory for the NDA on the back of an all-time-high seat tally for the BJP and the worst-ever show by the Congress. The post-poll projections by major TV channels show that the voters have chosen to install a stable Government at the Centre led by the BJP’s prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi.
The projections unanimously gave the NDA a major lead over the rival UPA though the seat projections differ vastly in many cases, keeping alive the element of suspense for the May 16 counting. Exit poll findings also suggest that after the polls began on April 7, the BJP campaign blitzkrieg paid rich dividends in moulding the public perception. This is clear from the fact that majority of the pre-election opinion polls gave much less seats to the NDA.
Most of the exit polls have predicted a landslide for BJP in Uttar Pradesh where the party had won just ten seats in the 2009 elections. This time around, exit polls have projected the BJP as winning anything between 45 and 70 seats in the four-cornered contest in which the Congress, the BSP and the SP face the prospect of a rout. ORG gave the BJP 52 seats in UP and 10 to the Congress. Today’s Chanakya gave 70 seats to the BJP, while CSDS predicted 45-53 seats for it and C-Voter gave 54 seats in the biggest State.
The exit polls also predict a near-sweep for the NDA in Bihar and dismal show for the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (U) and about a dozen seats for the RJD and the Congress. The NDA is expected to gain between 25 and 30 seats in the State, which shows that the Modi factor has helped the BJP more than offset the loss of support base due to parting of ways by the JD(U).
Apart from expected gains in its strongholds like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the NDA is also set to register a massive win in Maharashtra. The BJP is also picking up seats in States like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Odisha where in the past it rarely opened its account.
One of the polls, conducted by Today’s Chanakya for News24 channel, even projected 340 seats for NDA, 70 for UPA and 133 for others. The poll on Times Now, conducted by ORG, predicted that the NDA would get 249 seats while UPA would bag 148 seats and ‘others’ 146 seats.
A poll conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN gave NDA between 270 and 282 while UPA was projected to get between 92 and 102. The BJP alone was projected to get between 230 and 242 while the Congress was projected to get between 72 and 82 by the same poll. A poll conducted by ITG-Cicero for Headlines Today projected that the NDA would get 272 (plus-minus 11), UPA would get 115 (plus-minus 5) and ‘others’ 156.
C-Voter survey on India TV gave the NDA 289 seats and 101 for the UPA and 153 for others. In the NDA, 249 seats were projected for the BJP and 40 for its allies. In the UPA, 78 seats were projected for the Cong and 23 for its allies. ABP News-AC Nielsen poll projected a clear majority for NDA with 281 seats while UPA was projected to get 97. ‘Others’ were projected to bag 165 seats.
The Congress appears to be getting some good news from the South, particularly Kerala, Karnataka and Telangana. Out of 20 seats in Kerala, the Congress-led UDF was projected to get between 11 and 14 while in Karnataka, the Congress is projected to get nearly half of the 28 seats.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK is projected to do well, with one survey giving it even up to 31 out 39 seats. The ruling Trinamool Congress is also said to be doing well in West Bengal with projections saying that it could get up to 31 out of 42 seats. In Delhi where seven States are at stake, an almost clean sweep was predicted by all the polls for BJP. Some surveys have given two seats for the Aam Aadmi Party.
Maharashtra, which has 48 seats, is projected to give over 30 seats to the BJP and the Shiv Sena. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP was projected to win more than 35 seats out of 40. Rajasthan was projected to give almost all the 25 seats.