The exit polls for the Assembly election to the five States brought all round cheers to the BJP on Thursday as it led its rivals by a big margin in Uttar Pradesh and looked all set to wrest Uttarakhand from the Congress. The BJP was also predicted to emerge either a clear winner or the single largest party in Goa. However, the picture was somewhat hazy in Punjab and Manipur. The pollsters were divided between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab and between the Congress and the BJP in Manipur.
Going by the pollsters, the all-important battle for UP may lead to the rout of the BSP and the SP-Congress alliance could be a poor second. While the BJP is sure to emerge as the single largest party, at least three exit polls predicted that it will cross the halfway mark with comfortable ease.
Most polls also forecast a close fight between the Congress, which is seeking to return to power in Punjab after a hiatus of 10 years, and Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, making its debut in the Assembly polls in the State.
India Today-Axis poll gave 251-279 seats to the BJP, while Today’s Chanakya for News 24 channels projected the BJP winning 285 seats in UP. According to India Today-Axis poll, the SP-Congress combine will win between 82 and 112 seats, while the BSP is expected to get just 28 to 42 seats. Chanakya also placed the SP-Congress combine at the second place with 88 seats and the BSP with the consolation prize of 27 seats.
Times Now-VMR poll forecast 190-210 seats for the BJP in the UP Assembly, while India News-MRC gave it 185 and ABP-lokniti CSDS 164-176 seats. If BJP wins UP, it would return to power in the politically significant and volatile State after 15 years. The three polls projected 110-130, 120 and 156-169 seats respectively for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and 57-74, 90 and 60-72 seats for the Mayawati-led BSP.
India Today-Axis exit poll predicted 62-71 seats for the Congress in 117-member Punjab Assembly, a comfortable majority, and 42-51 to the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP. The Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine was projected to be decimated in the State which it has ruled for a decade.
However, India TV-C Voter projected 59-67 seats for the debutante AAP and 41-49 for the Congress. India News-MRC and News 24-Chanakya forecast a dead heat by giving 55 and 54 seats each to both parties.
The BJP looked set to return to power in Uttarakhand, with India Today and News 24 projecting a comfortable majority for the party, giving it 46-53 and 53 seats respectively in the 70-member House, way more than the halfway mark of 30. C-voters-India TV predicted that the Congress and the BJP will tie with 33 seats and independents will gain five seats in Uttarakhand. But India News-MRC predicted the Congress’ victory in Uttarakhand with 38 seats.
India Today projected 18-22 seats for the BJP in 40-seat Goa Assembly followed by the Congress with 9-13 seats. India TV predicted a hung Assembly, projecting 15-21 seats for the BJP and 12-18 for the Congress.
In the NDTV poll of polls, an average of several exit polls, the BJP was projected to win 179 seats, the SP-Congress 136 and the BSP 77 seats in UP. It forecast 55 seats for the Congress in Punjab, closely followed by the AAP with 54 seats. The incumbent Akali Dal-BJP alliance was predicted to be staring at a virtual decimation with only 7 seats in the 117-member Assembly. In Uttarakhand, it gave the BJP a majority with 43 seats followed by the ruling Congress with 23.
In Manipur, it predicted a close fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP with the former getting 26 and the latter 24 in the 60-member Assembly. India TV-C-voters as well as India News-MRC predicted BJP’s victory in Manipur. The India-Today Axis poll showed the Congress retaining Manipur with 20-36 seats, while the BJP is expected to win between 16 and 22 seats.